Only Doug Ford can save Ontarians from Donald Trump, but he can’t do it unless people give him a really big mandate, right now. That’s the premise of the Feb. 27 provincial election that the premier on Friday confirmed he’ll be calling next week.
The very future of the province, perhaps even the country, hangs on the magnitude of the majority Ford gets next month, he contended at a Brampton press conference. He wants “the largest mandate in Ontario’s history.”
“We need a mandate from the people to fight against Donald Trump’s tariffs, the attack that is coming against our families, our businesses and our communities,” Ford said. “The decisions people make in the next 30 days will affect themselves, their children and their grandchildren for the next 25 to 30 years,” he added.
Without in any way diminishing the real threat posed by potential American tariffs, one has to ask how significant Doug Ford’s role in averting it could possibly be. Further, how would a really big mandate from the people of Ontario help Ford achieve his goal?
Ford argues that a strong mandate would encourage the American president to listen to Ontario’s concerns and it would strengthen Ontario’s ability to negotiate. How so? The idea that Trump cares about Ontario one way or another is rather optimistic, and the notion that he’d respect us if Ford had a big mandate is even more so.
Ford spoke Friday about being at the negotiating table with Trump and raised the spectre of Ontario Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie or NDP leader Marit Stiles “sitting across from Trump negotiating a deal.” Yes, that might be scary, but does Ford really think he’ll be sitting across from Trump negotiating some kind of deal? That’s the job of the federal government, not the Ontario premier.
Ford has likened the tariff struggle to a gun fight and suggested that you don’t bring a knife to a shootout. Sound thinking there, but unfortunately any Ontario premier is going to be armed with nothing more than a pop gun. Ford has talked about cutting off electricity exports to some American states and pulling U.S. booze off LCBO shelves. Neither will bring Trump to his knees.
One can appreciate Ford’s dilemma, though. This is an opportune time to call a provincial election, but how to justify it?
A new Leger poll, exclusive to National Post, shows Ford’s PCs with 46-per-cent support among Ontarians, compared to just 22 per cent for the Liberals and 19 per cent for the NDP. Plus, by slipping in a vote before the expected federal spring election, Ford gets to contrast himself with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Trump. For Ford, it doesn’t get any better than that.
A bonus, and a pretty significant one, is that a win would give Ford four more years without really having to explain what he might do over that time.
Asked Friday if he would release a fully costed platform, Ford said, “That’s what we have budgets for.” Actually no; budgets focus mostly on the year ahead and Ontario hasn’t had one for nearly a year. Plus, that budget is badly outdated by Ford’s promise to spend “tens of billions of dollars” offsetting the effects of American tariffs.
The blank tariff cheque that Ford is asking voters to sign has an awful lot of zeros on it. He’s asking a lot if he’s not going to lay out a plan for how the money will be spent. Is the idea to drive the provincial government even deeper into debt to support people most affected by tariffs? People should demand to see a plan during the campaign, but Ford’s chosen timing complicates that because we don’t yet know the details of Trump’s tariffs.
If all goes as Ford intends, he will spend four weeks talking about his past accomplishments, criticizing Liberal governments years out of office, mocking his opponents, and waving the Canadian flag, all so people will give him a four-year mandate without really knowing what they’re agreeing to. It will be up to the opposition parties, reporters and voters to press Ford for details.
Ford has been strong on the tariff issue, but there’s much more to his job than that. People deserve to know what Ford will do about health care, housing and education, too.
The PCs will enter this unusual winter snap election with significant popular support, a decent record and the blessing of weak opposition parties, but it would be a mistake for them to take the voters for granted.
National Post
[email protected]
Get more deep-dive National Post political coverage and analysis in your inbox with the Political Hack newsletter, where Ottawa bureau chief Stuart Thomson and political analyst Tasha Kheiriddin get at what’s really going on behind the scenes on Parliament Hill every Wednesday and Friday, exclusively for subscribers. Sign up here.