Despite making what has been his most aggressive statement against Russia in many years, Donald Trump has avoided any threat that might arrest the attention of Vladimir Putin.
US and European sanctions on Russia are already intense. US trade with Russia has been strangled to almost nothing after the imposition of more than 5,000 different restrictions by Washington since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
The outgoing Biden administration has further tightened the noose, with the imposition of last-minute Treasury sanctions on 183 ships moving Russian oil and gas, along with a range of other measures to restrict the ability of the Kremlin to sell its fossil fuels internationally.
There continues to be trade in Russian oil, with a price cap of $60 (£59) per barrel — it is currently trading at around $79 per barrel.
The International Energy Agency reported that Russian fuel revenues hit $192bn last year, but these include sales of liquified natural gas, which many European countries rely upon.
Trump made no reference to military support for Ukraine. In the past, he has shown extreme scepticism about the Biden administration’s limited support for the nation, which has amounted to around $60bn in military aid.
The new president has moved hard and fast to attack a wide range of economic and cultural norms, laws, and federal policies his administration sees as holding back the US. But he has so far done nothing to assist Ukraine’s ability to drive Russian forces out of its lands.
“I’m not looking to hurt Russia. I love the Russian people,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social. “Settle now, and STOP this ridiculous war! IT’S ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE. If we don’t make a ‘deal’, and soon.”
He went on to warn of further sanctions and other economic pressures that the US is largely unable to impose. This was the equivalent of threatening the Kremlin not with a cane, but with a limp carrot.
When it comes to international affairs, Trump’s relationship with Russia is his achilles heel. It may also shape the legacy of the 47th president’s final term in office. He knows — or should know — that his past fascination with Putin, alongside his indifference to protecting the secrets of the US and its allies, has caused him to be seen as a possible intelligence liability.
That’s part of the reason that European countries including the Baltics, UK, Poland and others are scrambling to improve their own military capabilities. Trump is not trusted when it comes to Ukraine.
He has often appeared to accept the Russian position that Ukraine should give up on joining Nato — and cede the 20% of the country so far captured by Moscow’s forces to the Kremlin. If that is the deal he thinks Putin should accept, Trump’s latest “threats” are even emptier.
He could win that trust back with another post on social media. He could offer to increase help to Kyiv if Putin refuses to take part in negotiations. He could, perhaps, show admiration for the grit and sacrifice that Ukraine, a democracy, has shown in the face of an invasion by a dictatorship.
But one should remember that Trump has described American soldiers who were killed fighting Hitler as “suckers” and “losers”.
© The Independent