Labour’s grip over London is breaking as voters desert Starmer’s party for the Tories and Reform, a shocking map has shown.
It comes after a report put the number of illegal migrants in the nation’s capital at 585,000, intensifying concerns migration is putting unsustainable strain on Britain’s public services and infrastructure.
The map, which has been generated by aggregating recent national polling weighted for recency and historic pollster accuracy, shows Labour’s heartland crumbling from the outside in.
It shows Starmer’s party losing eight seats around the edge of London to three different parties if an election was held tomorrow.
Hendon, Chelsea and Fulham, Chipping Barnet and Uxbridge and South Ruislip would all go Conservative, Bethnal Green and Stepney and Ilford North would fall to independents while Bexleyheath and Crayford and Dagenham and Rainham would swing right to Reform.
The map also shows Reform gaining Hornchurch and Upminster from the Tories in what would be historic ‘firsts’ for the disruptor party.
EXPLORE: Current voting intention of London constituencies
Projected electoral map of London. Note Reform gains in the east, Tory gains in the north west and two independent gains in Wes Streeting and Rushanara Ali’s seats.
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Current Electoral Map of London.
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Voter frustration with uncontrolled migration has been a major driver in Labour’s dwindling fortunes in the capital.
A recent report compiled on behalf of Thames Water estimated one in 12 of the population was living in London illegally.
The report combined migration estimates from the Pew Research Center in the US, the London School of Economics, Office for National Statistics with the number of National Insurance registrations for non-EU foreign nationals over a nine-year period.
The analysis put the number of illegal migrants in London at a minimum of 390,355 and a maximum of 585,533, with a median figure of 487,944.
The Home Office does not have any comprehensive data on the number of people coming to the UK illegally, aside from Channel crossings.
In 2025, 1,019 have crossed the Channel is small boats so far this year, the joint fastest rate since records began in 2018.
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Reform UK London AM, Alex Wilson said: “The news that one in 12 Londoners are illegal migrants is a truly shocking revelation. The establishment’s mass immigration experiment has ruined the fabric of our once great capital city.
“Given these numbers, it’s no shock it’s impossible to get on London’s housing ladder. It’s no shock crime is hitting record highs, year after year. It’s no shock that a rape is reported every hour in London.
“These eye watering numbers should be a wake up call for the establishment. Enough is enough, London expects better. It’s time to take back control of our capital city. Only Reform UK will save London.”
A Home Office spokesman said: “This Government is strengthening global partnerships and rooting out the criminal gangs who profit from small boat crossings which threaten lives.
“We have also removed 16,400 illegal migrants in just six months, the highest figure in half a decade, making it clear that those who arrive illegally will be returned.”
A Thames Water spokesman said: “Water companies have a regulatory obligation to undertake a ‘water balance’, which includes understanding how much water our customers use on a per-person basis, and how it is distributed across our supply area.
“Analysis to estimate ‘hidden and transient’ populations is carried out by an independent firm of consultants, who draw from publicly available sources including census, surveys, and published academic research. Thames Water played no part in the writing of the report and the conclusions drawn are those of the independent firm that carried out the research.”