The second busiest retail corridor in Chicago is typically a bustling area dotted with taquerias and Mexican grocery stores in the southwestern part of the city. By Monday afternoon it had turned into a ghost town.

Word had gotten out over the weekend that the city could be the target of potential immigration raids after President Donald Trump took office, spreading anxiety among residents and business owners alike. Trump’s inauguration speech and boasts of cracking down on migrants only heightened the fear, while the frigid weather also kept people indoors.

Foot traffic at the 2-mile stretch of 26th Street in the Little Village neighbourhood plunged — by some measures, the decline had hit the 50%-mark, according to Jennifer Aguilar, who heads the local chamber of commerce and spoke to a number of the 400 or so businesses in the area.

“It’s going to be disastrous,” Aguilar said in an interview. “If raids happen and people are too afraid to go out, it’s going to be an impact that’s going to last for years.”

Trump moved quickly on Monday to fulfill campaign pledges after his inauguration speech, announcing measures to end birthright citizenship and mobilize troops to step up border enforcement. He shut down the CBP One app, used by migrants to cross the border and ask for asylum, dashing the hopes of many waiting in Mexico for appointments with US authorities.

It all came three days after the Wall Street Journal reported Trump’s team was planning large Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids in Chicago starting on Tuesday — even though Border Czar Tom Homan later tried to downplay it, saying he was reviewing the plans.

The third-largest US city has long been a punching bag for Trump. But Chicago has been particularly on his radar after taking in tens of thousands of migrants during Joe Biden’s presidency, many bused from Texas by Governor Greg Abbott to sanctuary cities run by Democrats.

Midwest’s Mexico

Little Village, known as the “Mexico of the Midwest,” is located southwest of Chicago’s main business district. The area brings more tax revenue to City Hall than any other retail stretch other than the Magnificent Mile, the downtown shopping street that features luxury stores including Saks Fifth Avenue, Rolex and Burberry.

“I was walking the business corridor three days ago on Friday, and I spoke with a street vendor who said their sales were down about 60%,” said Mike Rodriguez, an alderman for the 22nd ward, which includes Little Village. “Business was just down, people were staying home, people were worried about: one the cold, but two, they were fearful of engaging with ICE.”

Chicago and other cities such as New York have struggled to pay for the cost of housing and feeding migrants. A one-time mass deportation operation of some 13 million people would cost at least $315 billion, the American Immigration Council estimated, warning the figure was “highly conservative.” If spread over time, that number could be much bigger. And that doesn’t include the economic impact of workers not showing up and businesses having to shut down as a result.

“Places like Little Village, Pilsen, Chinatown, their contribution to the city is enormous,” said Rebecca Shi, chief executive officer at the American Business Immigration Coalition. “When businesses have less foot traffic, they’re going to generate less revenue. That’s less taxation for our schools, for our health system, for our public safety, police departments, everything that keeps every Chicagoan safe.”

Worker Absenteeism

The owner of three Mexican restaurants employing more than 70 people in the southern part of the city said two of his workers are already not showing up. The Mexican entrepreneur, who is now an American citizen, said he gave all his workers the option to stay away. He asked not to be named so as not to face retribution.

“I’ve been here for 25 years and I’ve seen many things, but nothing like this,” he said in an interview in one of his establishments on Monday. “This is about how we are going to survive this, and I’m not just talking about my employees, I’m talking about the whole customer base.”

Elected officials and community groups have been gathering over the past two months to educate immigrants about their rights. On Saturday, Illinois Representative Jesús ‘Chuy’ García, a Democrat, joined the Resurrection Project and Chicago Workers Collaborative to provide guidance in case of ICE raids.

“I’m an immigrant myself, so the reality doesn’t escape me,” he said in an interview in Washington DC on Thursday. “My father was deported several times when he was here before he became a legal resident, and petitioned for us. So it’s personal.”

Eréndira Rendón, vice president of Immigrant Justice at the Resurrection Project, reminded residents that they have the constitutional right to remain quiet, request a lawyer or decline to open the door. José Frausto, executive director of Chicago Workers Collaborative, told residents to have a family plan in place as it’s unclear what would happen to relatives and properties of people who get deported.

Illinois Representative Delia Ramirez, a Democrat whose district covers parts of northwest Chicago, was on Monday part of a group of 150 volunteers handing out flyers explaining what rights people have in case of an ICE raid. She said one in five small businesses in Chicago is owned by undocumented immigrants.

Even business owners who support Trump are bracing for the impact. Sam Sanchez, a restaurant owner in Chicago, said he generally supports the incoming president’s immigration policies. While the administration said it will focus on criminals, Sanchez expects collateral damage including arrests of longtime residents whose only offence is being in the country illegally.

“It’s going to happen,” Sanchez said. “They are going to knock on doors and come to businesses.”

—With assistance from Isis Almeida.