As the 2025 political year begins, the battle for the control of the centre-right of politics remains front and centre.
In the fight between Reform and the Conservatives, it feels as if the two parties are locked into a protracted semi-final, with the prize being to take on Labour in the grand final of the next election.
Over the festive season, Nigel Farage seemed to be enjoying himself. Not only were Reform improving their position in the national polls, but Kemi Badenoch made the error of questioning Reform’s membership number, thereby drawing even more attention to the claim that Reform had surpassed the Tories in terms of total signed-up supporters.
However, as the New Year got underway, Farage was under attack from an Elon Musk exocet missile. Musk said Farage wasn’t up to the job and a media storm ensued in which prospects of a $100m donation presumably evaporated.
After a shaky Christmas, Badenoch got off to a strong start by pursuing every avenue to kickstart a national inquiry into the horrors of the child rape gang scandal.
Both Badenoch and Farage now face a crucial period in the run up to the next big electoral test – May’s council elections (which will be reduced in number due to Labour’s sudden desire to reorganise certain tiers of local government).
For Farage, having managed to generate momentum he now needs to pull of the even harder task of maintaining it.
Many are expecting to see opinion polls placing Reform in first place – or at least measurably ahead of the Tories.
If such polls don’t materialise, Farage’s claim that the Conservatives are finished as a major political force will start to ring a little hollow.
The media narrative will start to shift towards whether Reform are just a flash in the pan, a modern equivalent of the SDP.
Kemi Badenoch and Nigel FaragePA/GETTY/REFORM UKThe now famous (or infamous) Reform membership ticker could also become a hostage to fortune. Having decided to place their impressive membership tally in the public domain on a minute-by-minute basis, what happens if the number of members starts to stall?
Farage and his party have pulled off a remarkable feat in generating such a boost of support since the general election but can they sustain an upwards trajectory such that talk of them winning a general election outright looks feasible rather than fanciful?
On the Conservative side of the ledger, Kemi Badenoch faces her own tests – essentially the other side of the same coin.
The ludicrous murmurings in some quarters that the Tories need to be considering yet another leadership contest a mere two months into her tenure need to be quashed – or at least kept to the lunatic fringes.
A party with a pathological addiction to regicide is never going to make electoral progress. Fortunately, this should be an easy hurdle for her to clear.
Even those who have been underwhelmed by her first weeks in post surely appreciate it would be insanity for the party to go through another destabilising period of change.
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Second, she needs to credibly maintain the key proposition that the Conservatives are the only feasible way of defeating Labour.
For all of the many faults the Tories have displayed over countless years, the clarion call that they represent the best shot of stopping (or removing) a Labour government is absolutely fundamental to their continued existence.
If that goes, the party could disintegrate. At this stage, she doesn’t need some enormous opinion poll lead pointing to a landslide victory in 2029, but she does need a consistent and steady lead over Reform UK.
Finally, she needs to methodically map out a strategy that gives Conservatives confidence that Reform can be overcome in fairly short order. Critics of the Conservatives in the battle for the centre-right might say that it’s a bit like watching a tired, lethargic government quango (the Tories) try and compete with a vibrant, dynamic, fleet-of-foot start-up (Reform).
Instead, Kemi needs to show that the Tories are the equivalent of a respected FTSE100 company that’s had some tough times but is returning to health.
Such companies tend to have a history of either absorbing or quashing upstart challengers to their position once they have nailed their overall strategy.
The battle for the centre-right is going to be a series of skirmishes in the weeks ahead. The outcomes of those skirmishes could well set the party political system in Britain for decades to come.