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TOP STORY
As Canada braces for the possibility that the inauguration of president-elect Donald Trump will immediately yield crushing tariffs on Canadian imports, Canadian politicians have been frantically making a show of their newfound commitment to border security.
Although Trump has many stated grievances with Canada, his initial tariff threat was predicated on the demand that Canada close “its ridiculous Open Borders.” Here’s a quick summary of what Canada has done to try and satisfy the incoming Trump administration.
Scores of planes, drones, dogs and agents
It’s the new hardware for the Canadian border that’s getting all the press attention, including in the United States. The Trudeau government has earmarked $1.3 billion over five years for border security, and much of that will be going to good, old-fashioned law enforcement: Drones, aircraft, dogs and people in uniforms. The RCMP is getting $667.5 million of the total, and the Canada Border Services Agency is getting $335.4 million.
The money will buy a reported 60 new drones, and enable the RCMP to add two leased Black Hawk helicopters to its fleet. Government backgrounders also promised more sniffer dogs, “additional surveillance towers,” “chemical analyzers” and “x-rays.”
Aerial border surveillance is typically best at preventing smuggling, which isn’t really a huge issue on the Canadian border, at least when it comes to drugs. Last year, for instance, the United States seized 185 pounds of methamphetamines coming in from Canada, as compared to 158,000 pounds coming in via Mexico.
But it would presumably help to curb unprecedented rates of illegal migration from Canada. U.S. Border Patrol in New York, Vermont and New Hampshire have been reporting for years that they are stopping a higher number of illegal entries than ever before.
Some immigration stuff (that we were mostly doing anyway)
The Government of Canada has set up a dedicated web page on which U.S. officials can peruse Ottawa’s various “actions and outcomes to date” on border security.
Right at the top of the page is a claim that was publicly touted this week by Immigration Minister Mark Miller as evidence that Canada had its border security in hand.
The page states that there’s been an 89 per cent decrease in “illegal southbound movement” into the U.S. Those figures are from June to December of last year, so the trends predate Trump’s initial Nov. 25 threats to slap Canada with 25 per cent tariffs.
The reductions came about in large part because the Trudeau government had already begun to tighten immigration requirements in a bid to dial back rates of both permanent and temporary immigration.
One major change was the February reimposition of visa requirements on Mexico nationals; that one action immediately drew down the rates of Mexicans illegally entering the U.S. from Canada by 72 per cent.
It’s a similar story with Canada’s announcement this week that any permanent resident entering the U.S. would have their personal information automatically shared with U.S. authorities. The arrangement has been in place for months, but only became public once Ottawa starting touting its heightened border security.
- A new Government of Canada webpage touting Ottawa’s progress on securing the U.S./Canada border. The top two figures seem less impressive when considering that they’re both coming down from unprecedented all-time highs.
Piecemeal border patrols from the provinces
One of the odder components of Canada’s new border plan are that multiple provincial governments have pledged to deputize random contingents of provincial employees as border guards.
Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew promised to send some conservation officers to keep tabs on his province’s border with North Dakota and Minnesota. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith created an Interdiction Patrol Team made up of Alberta sheriffs to watch their border with Montana. And Ontario Premier Doug Ford inaugurated Operation Deterrence, a contingent of about 200 Ontario Provincial Police officers doing border security.
“Since December 6, 2024, the OPP has conducted more than 6,000 hours of focused patrols to deter, detect and disrupt illegal border activity using fixed wing aircraft, helicopters, remotely piloted aircraft, boats, off-road vehicles, patrol vehicles and foot patrol,” reads a January statement from Ford’s office.
IN OTHER NEWS
Mark Carney officially announced his bid for the Liberal leadership on Thursday. Although his recent appearance on The Daily Show was a kind of soft launch, he hadn’t explicitly said that he was vying for Justin Trudeau’s job. In a speech in Edmonton, Carney strenuously avoided criticizing the current federal government (many of whose members were standing behind him), but he said that the “good, old times” known by members of his generation are over, and that the “far left” had no solutions for Canada. Why Edmonton? Carney grew up there from 1971 to 1983.
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This is from a recent Angus Reid Institute survey asking Americans what they thought about Donald Trump’s plan to impose blanket 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian imports. Only 26 per cent had any immediate enthusiasm for the idea, and as seen above, this sentiment shifted dramatically once they learned what the tariffs would do to gas prices. Whole regions of the United States fuel their cars primarily with gasoline refined from Canadian oil, so any sudden 25 per cent surcharge would have an immediate effect on gas prices.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has publicly broken with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and her nine provincial counterparts in refusing to sign off on a plan that would potentially shut off Canadian energy exports in response to tariffs on Canadian goods. Although Trudeau accused Smith of being unpatriotic, economist Andrew Leach noted in a social media post that any plan to bar energy exports would mostly harm Alberta. “If you want a Team Canada approach, that has to mean sharing the costs. It can’t mean a policy response that disproportionately hits one part of the country for the benefit of Canada,” he said.
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