Positively identifying whether Exeter Chiefs are simply having growing pains from their injury-ravaged rebuild or rather tail-spinning their way through a potential terminal decline just isn’t an easy call .
Losing games can become a contagion and, so far, the Chiefs have lost nine of their 10 Premiership fixtures with only their bonus points keeping them just ahead of basement team Newcastle Falcons, who have managed to taste victory twice.
Europe has been miserable as well, though in fairness Pool One is no place to be with Toulouse and Bordeaux-Begles around; the Chiefs coughing up 11 tries six days ago when hosting the latter meaning Rob Baxter’s squad have no wins from three going into Friday night against Ulster, who have had the same paltry return.
You wonder how much worse it could get at Sandy Park, once the home of the Premiership and Champions Cup double-winners of 2020 and now — a side who seem to mostly have forgotten how to win.
That long-serving Baxter is feeling the pressure is something he has admitted, especially following that 69-17 drubbing against Bordeaux which was he biggest margin of defeat in the club’s history and the worst hammering they have received at home.
It’s not been easy, frontline players have departed — the ‘exodus’ of figures such as Luke Cowan-Dickie and Sam Simmonds have been blows — as the club has attempted to balance the books and now a litany of injuries has done further damage with star winger Immanuel Feyi-Waboso joining Olly Woodburn, Ehren Painter and Josh Hodge on the physio’s couch
The signing of Wallaby flanker Tom Hooper for next season is ambitious but right now, the Chiefs are in a dark place, the Bordeaux drubbing also coming just two games on from their, so far, only Premiership victory over Gloucester and straight after they came close to a result at Leicester Tigers.
Whether Baxter can survive a further string of losses is yet to be determined but at least he and his squad have something to chase on Friday night at Ravenhill as should they pull off a result, the likelihood is knockout rugby in the Challenge Cup.
But it would appear that that outcome is somewhat unlikely as they have rung the changes, making 12 alterations to the starting team and leaving their frontliners at home.
The message is that in the midst of the hoped for rebuild, the Chiefs have offered those on the fringes a chance to express themselves . The players’ motivation will be to show Baxter that they can be at the forefront of the club’s future plans right now.
It just might work too but, then again, the primary focus in terms of producing any substantial evidence of revival is likely on next weekend’s hosting of Saracens back in the Premiership.
A tall order maybe but a goal to throw everything at.
Exeter Chiefs: (15-9) H Skinner; B Hammersley, J Hawkins, W Rigg, P Brown-Bampoe; W Haydon-Wood, N Armstrong; (1-8) W Goodrick-Clarke; J Innard (c), J Iosefa-Scott; R Tuima, C Tshiunza; M Moloney, R Capstick, R Vintcent. Replacements: M Norey, K Blose, J Roots, J Dunne, L Pearson, J Bailey, T Cairns, Z Wimbush.