The final road game on a brutal run for the Montreal Canadiens in Dallas on Thursday night. After the contest against the Stars, the Canadiens get some home cooking with six of their next seven games at the Bell Centre.
The same two clubs played last week with Dallas winning in a shootout in Montreal. In Texas, the Canadiens continued their surge with a 3-1 win.
Wilde Horses
The top-three defenders in the NHL are Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes and Miro Heiskanen, and the best of the three defensively is Heiskanen. Cole Caufield treated the Dallas Stars 25-minute man like he was from the minor leagues on the first Montreal goal.
The days that Caufield is described as ‘just a shooter’ are over. Caufield won the puck on the blue line, beat one defender, then he faced Heiskanen one-on-one. He faked a shot, went inside out, brought Heiskanen to his knees, then slid a pass over to Juraj Slafkovsky who had an empty net. It was, perhaps, the best pass in Caufield’s career. It was world class.
Caufield is a point-per-game player, and remarkably it isn’t all goals. It is almost a 50-50 balance as Caufield becomes a complete player. It was a terrific moment for Slafkovsky, as well, as he went hard to the net for that gimme.
The first line was on fire out of the gate. Nick Suzuki made about 10 amazing plays in the first 10 minutes. Suzuki is the NHL’s most underrated player. Night after night, the best players in the world find it’s a night of little production when they’re matched-up against the Canadiens captain.
At times, this season, the top-line has done its damage with only two players highly-functioning, but in this one, Slafkovsky was as good as his mates. When all three are confident and firing, they are formidable. The line had a 100 Expected Goals share in the first period.
In the third frame, Slafkovsky had a puck battle facing the giant Esa Lindell. Slafkovsky led with the hip, then followed with his shoulder and absolutely buried the Finn. Slafkovsky can use his frame a tremendous amount more than he does. When he figures that out, it’s going to be ugly for the opposition.
In the second half of last season, the Suzuki line had 53 goals. This year, in the first half, they had only 40 goals. A first line with 100 goals is tremendous. The last time a Canadiens line cracked the century mark was Vincent Damphousse, Brian Bellows and Kirk Muller in 1993.
That century mark won’t be attainable this season, but the Suzuki line may crack 90 the way they are playing. Next season, add the world’s best prospect Ivan Demidov, Patrik Laine for an entire season and a surging Kirby Dach, and perhaps two lines may be surging with strong scoring.
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The Canadiens took the lead midway through the third period. Lane Hutson took a shot from the point that was deflected by Alex Newhook. That’s 36 points in 44 games this season for Hutson. It’s ten points in the last six games. It’s a six game point streak. Remarkable young player. Sign him before he costs 10 million per season.
The insurance marker was an empty netter and appropriately it went to Joel Armia who was a formidable power forward in this one. He lost his stick on a penalty kill and broke up three plays by outmuscling his foe.
Defensively, it was a monster of an effort from Kaiden Guhle. He got the tough assignments and he handled nearly every moment impeccably. Guhle was extremely physical as well. He made his opponent pay for the ice that they hoped for. He got into lanes. He read plays. Guhle is finding another level since he switched to the left side and got Alexandre Carrier as his partner.
In net, Jakub Dobes, in his fourth start, looked as sensational as his first three starts. Dobes is reading the play so well, then using a terrific athleticism for a man of his size. Dobes let in a single goal on 33 shots. His save percentage this season is .963.
Every night, no matter which goalie the Canadiens use, they have a chance to win.
Wilde Goats
Are you kidding me? The Canadiens won in Dallas. There are no Wilde Goats.
Wilde Cards
Two months ago, it was looking like another season of a high draft pick and more filling of the prospect pool for the Canadiens. Now, suddenly, a different plan could be on the horizon for General Manager Kent Hughes.
Montreal’s expected pick in the top-five and a second first round pick from Calgary at around 12 that would have yielded top-tier prospects is now two picks in the second tier. At this moment, the standings show the Canadiens would draft 13th and 18th.
That is a far different calibre of prospect. Historically, once the draft moves beyond the 10th overall pick, the likelihood drops from 85 per cent that player makes the league to only 50 per cent when the first round concludes.
Considering the prospect pool already filled with the likes of Ivan Demidov, Jacob Fowler and Michael Hage, and the 2025 first round picks moving into the teens, it could be buying season for Hughes at the trading deadline.
The popular sentiment has been that unrestricted free agents like Jake Evans, Joel Armia, and David Savard will be moved for more picks, but it is looking more likely that will not happen at all. The culture of winning is more important than adding a third draft pick in the third or fourth round.
If a GM wishes to throw a first round pick at Hughes, he will bite on that apple, but don’t expect that return. The market is moving away from first rounders as a return, unless the UFA is top-tier. None of Montreal’s offerings are of that value, so they’ll stay.
But what would make Hughes an actual buyer trading away his first round picks?
Firstly, March 7th has to see the Canadiens hunting a playoff spot, and the Flames pick has to be in the late teens as well. That would open the door for Hughes to acquire players that fit into the timeline of his rebuild.
He wouldn’t be looking for players that are aging out. He has shown that 28 is acceptable as evidenced by acquiring veteran Alexandre Carrier for hopeful Justin Barron. Just like with Carrier, the player acquired would have to have some term remaining on his contract. Hughes would definitely not be looking for a two-month rental.
The teams that he would be trading with are those outside of the playoff picture and realizing that they have a long rebuild in front of them. Like Nashville did with Carrier, a GM trades away a 28 year old because he realizes that his team is lousy, it’s going to be lousy for a while, and his prospect pool is lousy as well.
Trading partners are the likes of the New York Islanders, Nashville Predators, or Pittsburgh Penguins. Even the Boston Bruins may look at their absolutely empty pool, their descent in the standings, and decide to go prospects and picks as top priority.
All it takes is a GM to acknowledge that he can’t win with his present roster, nor his prospects. He sees a weak four-year window, and suddenly, his 28 year olds are on the block.
Exactly like Hughes did when he dealt Tyler Toffoli three years ago. Now, Hughes may be the GM picking up the Toffolis of the NHL.
All the Canadiens have to do is stay strong for 45 days winning a little bit more than they lose in the next 20 games. If they do that, they’ll be looking for an Artturi Lehkonen, instead of trading his type away.
This could be a very exciting time in Montreal. Throw away your preconceived notions. Open your mind to a whole new world for the Canadiens starting in March. On the horizon may be the end of stockpiling picks and the start of acquiring high-end assets.