Last season, the Calgary Flames finished 24th overall in the NHL standings with 81 points and a points percentage of just 0.494.
In the summer, Flames general manager Craig Conroy continued a teardown that had begun in earnest during the regular season, trading forward Andrew Mangiapane to the Washington Capitals and goaltender Jacob Markstrom to the New Jersey Devils.
They joined a noteworthy departure list that included Elias Lindholm, Nikita Zadorov, Chris Tanev, Noah Hanifin and Tyler Toffoli.
The rebuild had begun.
The Flames kicked off 2024-25 with the second-most cap space in the league and the expectation for another top-10, if not top-5, draft pick given the exodus of so many established veterans and stars.
Except, Calgary placed 15th in the league at the 41-game mark. The Flames’ point percentage hit .573 and they trailed the reeling Vancouver Canucks by just one point for the final wild card spot in the West.
So how have they defied expectations so far? Here are the five key elements that have Calgary in the playoff fight against all odds.
Dustin Wolf emerges
At the half-season mark, only two teams had scored fewer goals than the Flames (110): The Anaheim Ducks (105) and the Nashville Predators (101). Neither club is in the playoff discussion.
In fact, Calgary set a franchise record for most consecutive games scoring three goals or fewer (25 games), a streak that normally would sink any post-season ambition.
This is a roundabout way to say that with anything short of elite goaltending, the Flames would be much further down the league rankings. Dustin Wolf and Dan Vladar combined to form a potent duo at the start of the season, with both guys switching off starts and providing high-level puck-stopping.
Over time, however, Vladar has fallen off while Wolf has continued to put up all-star numbers. When they hit 41 games played, the Flames enjoyed the second-best 5-on-5 save percentage in the league (93.24%), paced by Wolf’s incredible 94.38% in 22 games. To put that in context, Markstrom’s best single-season 5-on-5 SV% in Calgary was 92.85% in 2021-22.
It will be extremely difficult to maintain this level of play through the rest of the year, of course, But anything close could help Calgary challenge for a playoff spot — not to mention, a potential Calder trophy for Wolf.
The kids step up
Calgary’s offensive woes would be even more pronounced without former first-rounders Connor Zary and Matthew Coronato. At the half-season mark, both kids were tied for third on the team in scoring with 22 points each.
Zary impressed during his rookie season last year but has taken an additional step forward in 2024-25. The team shifted him back to centre, where he has become a consistently dangerous presence down the middle at just 23 years old.
Prior to his unfortunate knee injury during a game against the Ducks, Zary had recorded 10 points in his previous 12 games and seemed to be gaining momentum. Perhaps Calgary’s best rush skater and a zone entry machine, Zary might be Calgary’s most creative offensive presence right now. He will be missed as he recovers on IR.
As for Coronato, no single skater on the club has improved more than the 22-year-old. Although his shooting and release were never in question, Coronato struggled with aspects of his skating, strength, and defensive play as a rookie.
This year, he has rapidly moved his way up the rotation and is frequently one of the Flames’ best skaters on the ice. During a recent win over the Los Angeles Kings, Coronato led the team in shots (five), individual scoring chances (six), points (a goal and an assist) and expected goals ratio (66%). All this while playing on a line with Mikael Backlund and Blake Coleman. The trio played most of the game against Kings star Anze Kopitar.
Neither guy is a finished product, and development is rarely a straight line, but Flames coaching and management must be thrilled from what they have seen out of both youngsters so far.
Jonathan Huberdeau’s renaissance
With 18 goals and 31 points in 41 games, Jonathan Huderdeau enjoyed his best stretch of hockey in Calgary. He’s also on pace for more than 30 goals, a big step up from the 12 he managed last season.
There’s no question Huberdeau is being floated by a career-high shooting percentage (24%), which is unlikely to last forever. But, crucially, the player looks more dangerous than he ever has in Flames colours, while also looking less like a liability in the defensive end.
Since forming a line with Martin Pospisil on the right wing and Nazem Kadri at centre, the trio has managed a shot ratio of better than 61% and an expected goals ratio of 58% at even strength. Those are well above average results that suggest the combo is both outshooting and outchancing the competition. It has translated on the scoreboard too, with a goals-for ratio of more than 66%.
Huberdeau is on pace for just over 60 points this year, which of course doesn’t justify his $10.5M price tag. But he has never looked more comfortable in Flames colours.
Mikael Backlund does the heavy lifting
He’s 35 years old, but the Flames captain seems to be aging like fine wine.
Flames head coach Ryan Huska relies on Backlund to take on the toughest minutes amongst Flames forwards.
He is frequently matched against other team’s best players and no player on the team had seen more defensive zone draws at even strength (157) through the first 41 games. Nevertheless, Backlund led all regular skaters in terms of expected goals ratio (52.9%) in the first half.
The reliable Backlund-Coleman duo is an incredibly stabilizing force for this roster. It gives the coaching staff the option to find better line matches for players like Zary and Huberdeau, without the team getting blown out by other club’s stars.
This is especially important for a club that is decidedly lacking in superstar forwards of their own.
MacKenzie Weegar finds his footing
It was a very shaky start for MacKenzie Weegar this year. Coming off of his 20-goal season, Weegar and frequent partner Daniil Miromanov were arguably the Flames’ worst pairing for the first 10 games or so. They were consistently on the wrong end of the shot and chance metrics every night and it caused Huska to shift the Rasmus Andersson and Kevin Bahl duo into the “top pairing” role.
Weegar has rallied as the season has progressed, though. With new partner Joel Hanley, Weegar’s underlying shot and chance metrics have raced up the ranks from the bottom of the list. He now leads all regular Flames defenders in expected goals ratio (52.4%), which is just a small step behind Backlund for all skaters on the team. He also has 22 points on the season, tied for third with Zary and Coronato, and the Flames own a 57% goals-for rate with him on the ice.
Weegar is an all-star-level defender and not the kind of player you typically find on the blueline of a rebuilding squad. No doubt the Flames would get a lot of interest if he was put on the trade block, but for now he’s here and helping the club try to achieve a Cinderella berth into the playoffs.
For nearly two decades, Kent Wilson has written about NHL team building, advanced stats, and player evaluation. His work has appeared on The Score, Yahoo Sports, FlamesNation, Hockey Prospectus, Matchsticks & Gasoline, and The Athletic.