As hawkish as Danielle Smith is perceived to be on these matters, it’s hard to imagine any Alberta premier even considering signing on to a potentially devastating export tax on the oil and gas industry — one imposed by Justin Trudeau, no less.
For that matter, it’s very difficult to imagine another premier of any other province agree to measures that would single out and disproportionately harm their main industry. Not that anyone could envision the Trudeau government singling out any other industry in any other province, especially Ontario and Quebec.
With the federal government still reportedly entertaining the idea of an export tax on oil and gas — or even blocking such energy shipments to the U.S. altogether — it should come as no surprise that Ottawa didn’t get the complete show of unity it was hoping for at Wednesday’s first ministers’ meeting.
Frankly, it’s a meeting that should have happened well before this week, where we are now just days away from Donald Trump once again being sworn in as U.S. president. Alberta’s not the only province frustrated by a lack of federal leadership on this file, given the lost weeks between Chrystia Freeland’s resignation from cabinet and Trudeau’s own resignation announcement, where the prime minister was essentially AWOL.
Still, at this point, we don’t know for sure what Trump is going to do. We don’t know if he’s going to follow through on his threat to impose a massive tariff on Canadian exports, and, if so, just how all-encompassing that would be.
Hopefully, the Trudeau government will be cautious about any sort of response. For one thing, it’s not clear how much mandate and moral authority this lame duck and deeply unpopular prime minister has when it comes to leading the charge. We missed the opportunity for an election of our own that could have provided some necessary clarity and authority.
Furthermore, we shouldn’t be retaliating just for the sake of retaliating. Any measures Ottawa undertakes are going to impose additional economic pain on Canadians. But the same is true on the U.S. side — Trump’s tariffs could lead to price increases for Americans, which seems politically dicey in the aftermath of an election where Americans vented their collective anger about the toll that inflation has wrought. Ultimately, it’s internal American pressure we’re counting on to convince the president to back down. That could still happen even with Canada keeping its powder dry.
In the meantime, though, it’s not helpful for Canadian leaders to be so publicly airing their disagreements and signalling to Trump which divisions he could exploit. Alberta is understandably worried about what might happen in both Washington, D.C. and Ottawa as it pertains to the oil and gas sector, but there are other ways of making the case.
Just as Smith was smart to take the opportunity to go to Mar-a-Lago and make the case directly to Trump, she could have — and should have — gone in person to the first ministers’ meeting and made the case directly there (as it was, Smith’s appearance was virtual). Even if the prime minister isn’t open to hearing her case, other premiers just might be.
Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, for example, is just as worried as Smith is about what Ottawa might do here, yet he was at the meeting and, also unlike Smith, was willing to sign the declaration at the meeting’s conclusion. That declaration doesn’t bind the federal government to any course of action and it certainly doesn’t mean that Premier Moe has dropped his own objections to an export tax.
Yes, Ottawa keeps saying that “everything is on the table,” and that is what Smith is taking issue with here. But what else should the federal government be saying at this point? Again, we don’t know what Trump is going to do, and it would be strange and foolish for Ottawa to publicly announce that they’re taking or ruling out specific measures.
If Ottawa wants the appearance of the we’re-all-united, shoulder-to-shoulder Team Canada, then the federal Liberals need to be willing to demonstrate some flexibility and compromise behind the scenes. If Alberta wants some allies in that fight, it’s not helpful to take an approach that instead alienates them — even Ontario Premier Doug Ford was critical of Smith’s approach this week, a premier who might otherwise be an important partner for Alberta.
It could well be that Smith’s UCP government is spoiling for one last big fight with Trudeau before he exits stage left. Trudeau has become so politically toxic in Alberta that standing up to him has become an intrinsic part of Smith’s agenda and political brand. His departure will be quite seismic in Alberta politics and that cannot be overlooked in this context.
It’s hard to imagine the Alberta premier taking such a disruptive approach at a first ministers’ meeting convened by Prime Minister Pierre Polievre, but then again, hopefully a new government would be willing to take a much different approach on these issues.
It goes well beyond the willingness to consider an export tax. Smith’s points about our vulnerability stemming from our over-reliance on the American market for oil and gas exports is a valid and important point. A federal government willing to help open up new markets for those products would be most welcome.
In the meantime, though, Ottawa should understand the unfair and detrimental impact of an export tax on oil and gas. There are other ways of responding to Trump, but this should be a non-starter.
Rob Breakenridge is a Calgary-based broadcaster and writer. He can be found at robbreakenridge.substack.com and reached at [email protected]