For a political leader, few things are more attractive than riding to election victory on a wave of patriotic enthusiasm. It’s an urge that Ontario Premier Doug Ford seems less and less likely to resist.
Ford has spent the last few days dropping increasingly broad hints about the possibility of an election that could be called as soon as next month. He has told Ontarians that U.S. president-elect Donald Trump’s as-yet-unannounced tariffs could cost Ontario 500,000 jobs and suggested that the provincial government will have to spend “tens of billions of dollars” protecting Ontario from the effects of the American tariffs.
Ford has worked hard to position himself as Canada’s leading tariff opponent. He’s talking to American politicians and appearing on American cable talk shows to get Canada’s message out. In case you’ve missed the point that Ford is the defender of Canada, he literally topped it off Wednesday by wearing a blue hat that read “Canada is not for sale.” Excellent gimmick, although selling Canada is not the issue.
Now, Ford seems poised to translate his patriotic defence of Canada into an easy and opportunistic election victory. There is just enough time to stage an election thanks to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s own politically expedient decision to prorogue Parliament until March 24, so the Liberals can find their saviour.
Ford will travel to Washington Feb. 12 with the other premiers. After that, he could call an election any time. Provincial elections run for 28 days.
Federal and provincial conservative sources say they’ve been told to expect an election in that time period and Ontario PC candidate training, advertising, and fundraising are in high gear. Given the political volatility in Canada and the U.S., anything could happen, but a provincial election seems more likely than not.
In some respects, it’s an ideal scenario for Ford. The federal Liberal leadership race will absorb the energy and time of Liberal volunteers and key organizers. Fundraising will also be tough for Ontario Liberals, with leadership candidates beating the bushes. The public will pay little attention to a provincial election with the prospect of a much-anticipated federal election soon to follow.
Great for Ford, not so much for voters. Ford would be asking for a blank cheque to borrow and spend billions and he would be doing it by squeezing a winter election in just before an expected spring federal vote. For context, Ontario hasn’t had a winter provincial election since 1981. That’s because it’s the worst possible time for candidates to canvass and for voters to get to the polls.
If Ford does succeed in making the tariff fight the ballot question, it will be a strange election. The province’s major opposition leaders have already agreed to work with him on tariffs. Conveniently, such an election would spare Ford having to run on his record. Overall it’s good, but his government has struggled with health care, housing supply and meaningful help with affordability. That’s what the next election should be about.
From a taxpayers’ perspective, the biggest problem is Ford’s assumption that the provincial government should spend tens of billions of dollars offsetting the effects of American tariffs. International trade is a federal responsibility, and so is helping protect Canadians from the effects of a tariff war. Other than paying top dollar for election support, there is no reason for Ford to saddle Ontario with even more debt.
Ford says he requires a special mandate and the accompanying four-year term to tackle tariffs, but does he? His current term doesn’t expire until June of next year. While most Canadian politicians are portraying the tariff war as apocalyptic, history would suggest that it’s more likely to be a transitory problem.
Canada had a tariff fight with the previous Trump government in 2018. In May of that year, Trump imposed tariffs. By October, a new trade deal had been worked out. That trade deal is up for review in 2026. The threatened tariffs are a prelude to that, not something likely to be a permanent condition. That’s too harmful to both countries.
The Trump tariff plan is already unpopular in the U.S. and it hasn’t even started yet. Only a quarter of Americans support a 25-per -cent tariff on Canadian exports, according to an Angus Reid Institute poll released Thursday. When told how much the tariffs would increase the cost of gasoline and the price of cars, that support dropped even further.
Ford has earned himself valuable political capital by showing leadership. Why throw it away with a self-serving election that’s not really required?
National Post
[email protected]
Get more deep-dive National Post political coverage and analysis in your inbox with the Political Hack newsletter, where Ottawa bureau chief Stuart Thomson and political analyst Tasha Kheiriddin get at what’s really going on behind the scenes on Parliament Hill every Wednesday and Friday, exclusively for subscribers. Sign up here.