Economic output in Northern Ireland outpaced the UK in the third quarter of 2024 with growth of 1.3%, according to the latest government data.
The Northern Ireland Statistical and Research Agency (Nisra) data shows that the construction and service industries both increased output in the quarter. However, agricultural output went down slightly.
The NI Composite Economic Index (NICEI) brings together a number of different economic indicators and methods to provide a “proxy measure” of economic output in Northern Ireland.
NICEI publications cover three month periods and provide breakdowns of how different sectors of the economy are performing, including services, construction and agriculture.
At 3%, Northern Ireland also reported stronger growth since the third quarter of 2023 than the UK as a whole, where there was growth of 1%.
The index provides a point of comparison with Gross Domestic Product or output.
The service industry in NI grew by 1.1% in those three months. It is the largest slice of the economy here, and makes up over half of the the Gross Value Added (GVA) for Northern Ireland.
The construction sector also saw some notable growth, with total volume of output going up by 6.7%, and 14% over the course of the year from January to September.
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The figure was a 15-year high for the sector, and was 23% above the rates seen before the pandemic in Q4 2019.
Independent economist Richard Ramsey said: “The Northern Ireland economy enjoyed considerable rates of growth during the third quarter of the year.
“Unlike the rest of the UK, the local economy continues to benefit from the strong economic tailwind coming from the south.
“Demand from consumers from the Republic of Ireland has boosted the service sector’s performance from retail and hospitality to private medical care.
“The latest figures pre-date Rachel Reeves’ Autumn Budget. The latter has already dented business and consumer confidence with the planned increases in employers national insurance contributions and the national living wage due to take effect in April 2025.
“The third quarter of 2024 could well be something of a highwater mark, as far as the pace of economic expansion is concerned.
“Surveys such as the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI survey have already revealed a loss of momentum in the fourth quarter; particularly within manufacturing, construction and retail.”
He said that the proposed tax and wage increases “will act as a speed bump on economic growth” when they “bite” in the third quarter.
Mr Ramsey added: “The ‘known unknown’ is what will Donald Trump do to global trade and tariffs. Our manufacturers, like those in the rest of the world, are waiting with bated breath.”
Paul MacFlynn, co-director at the Nerin Economic Research Institute (Neri) said: “The results look good, particularly after the disappointing second quarter data, which was revised down even lower.”
“It’s the first time for many years we’ve seen both quarterly and annualised growth across all sectors with the exception of agriculture, which has always exhibited a much greater degree of volatility.”
But he added: “While on the face of it, growth seems much stronger in NI than the UK as a whole, the trend of growth shows a more accurate comparison.
“Since the end of the pandemic, the average rate of growth has been only marginally stronger in NI, by about 0.05% over the period since 2022 with the UK growing stronger in the initial post pandemic period and NI catching up over 2023 and 2024. In terms of change in overall output, there’s very little difference.
“Obviously, there is quite a bit of concern due to the perception that the economic picture this year is looking a bit murkier than might have been expected.
“However, I think what really jumps out when you look at the figures for both NI and the UK over the last couple of years is that growth overall has been faint and patchy.
“Ultimately the real task for both governments is finding a way to turn the dial on growth and move beyond the stop-start trend that we appear to be stuck in at present.”