Were the Texans that good or the Chargers that bad in one of the biggest wild-card upset thrashings (32-12) ever last week? Their edge rushers put a lot of heat on Justin Herbert (four sacks, four interceptions). The Chiefs beat the Texans by eight (27-19) four days before Christmas by making average players out of Joe Mixon and Nico Collins while picking off C.J. Stroud twice. But aren’t the Chiefs trying to kick the habit of stomping teams? Eleven of their 15 wins were by fewer than nine points. Ah, that’s right, they’re a different team in the playoffs. But wait, of Patrick Mahomes’ past eight post-season wins, only two were by more than eight points. Never question what Andy Reid can do with extra prep time, so the Chiefs will win. But that spread is too rich for our blood.
Chiefs 23, Texans 17
We saw how nervous rookie Jayden Daniels was in his first exposure to the NFL playoffs when cameras caught him laughing in the huddle, with the game still on the line, in last week’s win over Tampa. But the Commanders have won their past five games on the last play and the clock is about to strike midnight on these Cinder-fellas. The Lions look like a team of destiny and, in getting David Montgomery back as a complement to Jahmyr Gibbs, Sonic and Knuckles will dance around Washington’s 30th-ranked run defence and drain the clock once Detroit builds a lead.
Lions 33, Commanders 23
Saquon Barkley only had 302 all-purpose yards (255 rushing) and two TDs when the Eagles enjoyed a 37-20 cakewalk at SoFi in Week 12. He won’t reach those dizzy heights this week (right?), but he’s probably still the most dangerous offensive weapon in the post-season. The Rams have a tremendous multi-dimensional attack, especially with Tyler Higbee playing (which is up in the air this week), and they have a little extra push while wearing L.A. firefighters T-shirts under their jerseys. But after last week’s emotional victory, they’re traveling cross-country to play in a cold stadium (very cold when you take the maniacs at The Linc) to face the best all-round roster in the league. So why am I thinking Cooper Kupp is going to have a big game in a close one?
Eagles 27, Rams 23
Derrick Henry’s best two games this season were last Saturday, when he rumbled for 186 yards against the Steelers, and in the 35-10 Week 4 pasting the Ravens put on the Bills in Baltimore. The Bills were missing three key defenders in that one, including run-stopping linebacker Matt Milano, who has found his old form. Hence, the Ravens will have to stray at least slightly from last week’s plan, when they ran the ball with Henry and Lamar Jackson on 13 consecutive snaps. And without Zay Flowers, they’re not going to find as much success through the air as Josh Allen, who used eight different receivers in defeating the Broncos. It will be a close one, but for the second week in a row, my best bet is the Bills, who haven’t been a home underdog in a playoff game since 1967.
Bills 30, Ravens 28
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