Reform UK would win 81 seats if an election was held tomorrow while Labour would lose 128 seats, a sophisticated poll aggregating model has found.
The Nowcast Model, which is based on recent GB wide polling, is weighted for recency as well as historic pollster accuracy.
It found Nigel Farage’s party would soak up 22.7 per cent of the national vote, just 0.3 per cent behind the Conservatives.
Badenoch’s party would gain 22 seats in a moderate comeback, while the SNP would triumph in Scotland with 26 seats gained.
Seats that would change if an election was held tomorrow according to the Nowcast model
Election Maps UK
The result would see Reform UK sail past the Liberal Democrats current seat haul of 72 after Ed Davey’s party enjoyed excellent results in July 2024.
Despite Reform’s claims to be the official opposition, the model leaves the party some 60 seats adrift of the Conservatives.
Yet with Labour’s majority reduced so heavily, no party would have enough seats to form a government, meaning a coalition would have to form.
This would most likely be a Labour/Liberal Democrat coalition as their combined seat haul totals 354.
A Reform/Conservative coalition, as unlikely as that is to form, would only have 224 seats.
It comes as economic turmoil continues to dog the Labour government with Prime Minister Keir Starmer forced to defend his Chancellor.
Reeves herself is also deeply unpopular for raising taxes by £40billion and increasing government borrowing, fiscal plans that now seem foolish as the economy stagnates.
Other decisions driving unpopularity are the resignation of Tulip Siddiq, Starmer’s anti-corruption minister, who was named in a high-profile corruption case involving her aunt, the ex-Bangladeshi dictator.
After Starmer’s repeated attacks on Sunak for Tory sleaze, Tulip’s resignation is a major blow.
Also rumbling on in the background is the chaotic surrender of the Chagos Islands, rumoured to cost £9billion to British taxpayers.
These events all come after Labour got off to a terrible start in government, enacting unpopular decisions like stripping winter fuel payments, slapping farmers with inheritance tax and denying WASPI women compensation.
High profile Labour figures have seen their polling ratings drop in record time.
It appears the main benefactor is Nigel Farage. With the Tory party still rebuilding after its drubbing, Farage is hoovering up support with his party’s newcomer status proving tempting too thousands.
Here are the seats the Nowcast model has predicted Reform would win if an election was held tomorrow.
LATEST FROM MEMBERSHIP:
SEATS REFORM WOULD GAIN
ENGLAND
St Austell and Newquay / 2024 MP: Noah Law
South East Cornwall / 2024 MP: Anna Gelderd
Plymouth Moor View / 2024 MP: Fred Thomas
Isle of Wight East / 2024 MP: Joe Robertson
Bridgwater / 2024 MP: Ashley Fox
Havant / 2024 MP: Alan Mak
Folkestone and Hythe / 2024 MP: Tony Vaughan
Dover and Deal / 2024 MP: Mike Tapp
Ashford / 2024 MP: Sojan Joseph
Chatham and Aylesford / 2024 MP: Tristan Osborne
Rochester and Strood / 2024 MP: Lauren Edwards
Dartford / 2024 MP: Jim Dickson
Gillingham and Rainham / 2024 MP: Naushabah Khan
Sittingbourne and Sheppey / 2024 MP: Kevin McKenna
Bexleyheath and Crayford / 2024 MP: Daniel Francis
Thurrock / 2024 MP: Jen Craf
Castle Point / 2024 MP: Rebecca Harris
Rayleigh and Wickford / 2024 MP: Mark Francois
Basildon and Billericay / 2024 MP: Richard Holden
Dagenham and Rainham / 2024 MP: Margaret Mullane
Hornchurch and Upminster / 2024 MP: Julia Lopez
Harlow / 2024 MP: Chris Vince
Lowestoft / 2024 MP: Jess Asato
South West Norfolk / 2024 MP: Terry Jermy
Halesowen / 2024 MP: Alex Ballinger
Dudley / 2024 MP: Sonia Kuma
Nuneaton / 2024 MP: Jodie Gosling
Tipton and Wednesbury / 2024 MP: Antonia Bance
Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North / 2024 MP: Liam Byrne
North Warwickshire and Bedworth / 2024 MP: Rachel Taylor
Walsall and Bloxwich / 2024 MP: Valerie Vaz
Cannock Chase / 2024 MP: Josh Newbury
Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes / 2024 MP: Melanie Onn
Sherwood Forest / 2024 MP: Michelle Welsh
Tamworth / 2024 MP: Sarah Edwards
Burton and Uttoxeter / 2024 MP: Jacob Collier
Derby South / 2024 MP: Baggy Shanker
Mansfield / 2024 MP: Steve Yemm
Rotherham / 2024 MP: Sarah Champion
Rawmarsh and Conisbrough / 2024 MP: John Healey
Barnsley South / 2024 MP: Stephanie Peacock
Bolsover / 2024 MP: Natalie Fleet
Stoke-on-Trent Central / 2024 MP: Gareth Snell
Stoke-on-Trent North / 2024 MP: David Williams
Amber Valley / 2024 MP: Linsey Farnsworth
Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme / 2024 MP: Lee Pitcher
Normanton and Hemsworth / 2024 MP: Jon Trickett
Barnsley North / 2024 MP: Dan Jarvis
Kingston upon Hull East / 2024 MP: Karl Turner
Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley / 2024 MP: Yvette Cooper
Spen Valley / 2024 MP: Kim Leadbeater
Bradford South / 2024 MP: Judith Cummins
Halifax / 2024 MP: Kate Dearden
Makerfield / 2024 MP: Josh Simons
Ashton-under-Lyne / 2024 MP: Angela Rayner
Bolton South and Walkden / 2024 MP: Yasmin Qureshi
Scarborough and Whitby / 2024 MP: Alison Hume
Bolton North East / 2024 MP: Kirith Entwistle
Blackpool South / 2024 MP: Chris Webb
Blackpool North and Fleetwood / 2024 MP: Lorraine Beavers
Hyndburn / 2024 MP: Sarah Smith
Heywood and Middleton North / 2024 MP: Elsie Blundell
Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton / 2024 MP: Jim McMahon
Oldham East and Saddleworth / 2024 MP: Debbie Abrahams
Hartlepool / 2024 MP: Jonathan Brash
Easington / 2024 MP: Grahame Morris
Sunderland Central / 2024 MP: Lewis Atkinson
Houghton and Sunderland South / 2024 MP: Bridget Phillipson
Washington and Gateshead South / 2024 MP: Sharon Hodgson
South Shields / 2024 MP: Emma Lewell-Buck
Burnley / 2024 MP: Oliver Ryan
North Durham / 2024 MP: Luke Akehurst
Bishop Auckland / 2024 MP: Sam Rushworth
WALES
Llanelli / 2024 MP: Nia Griffith
Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr / 2024 MP: Steve Witherden