The Liberal party has unravelled in two ways: gradually, then remarkably suddenly.
The received wisdom is now obsolete by the time it has been received.
So far, none of the contenders touted to replace Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader and prime minister have come forward.
That will change Thursday with the announcement in Edmonton by Mark Carney that he will reluctantly offer himself to the service of his country.
The former bank governor is likely to be self-effacing about his stated ambition but, in truth, he sees politics as a remedy for decades of frustration where, as he says in his book Value(s), he “could see much but do relatively little.”
The truth is many, many Liberals are saying that if Carney isn’t the new leader by late March, the party will be able to hold its next convention in a bus shelter. (Disclaimer: I am a family friend of the Carneys, but retweets are not endorsements. I remain a firm adherent of Mark Twain’s maxim: “Loyalty to country, ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”)
Carney’s appearance on Jon Stewart’s Daily Show this week has ignited hope that the furniture can be saved under his leadership. Stewart had apparently read Value(s), and was keen to have him as a guest.
In the event, it appeared the host was more interested in lining up his next wisecrack than listening to what Carney had to say, but it provided the former governor with a platform to show a more playful side to his character.
Carney registered at least one genuine chuckle, when he talked about Canada’s antipathy to a closer relationship with the U.S. “It’s not you, it’s us,” he said.
He hinted at his leadership campaign strategy when Stewart suggested it will be difficult for any Liberal candidate, given they will be saddled with Justin Trudeau’s policies.
Carney pushed back, touting the chances of a hypothetical candidate who had not been part of the government; who had plenty of economic experience; and, who had a plan to deal with the challenges ahead.
“You’re running as an outsider?” asked Stewart.
“I am an outsider,” said Carney.
The online onslaught has already started. Canada Proud is running an ad portraying Carney as an out-of-touch elitist: a former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, an adviser to Trudeau and a member of the World Economic Forum.
Carney will try to convince Canadians that such broad experience is a positive. With the threat of Donald Trump’s tariffs looming, it may not hurt to remind voters that he has experience in international crisis management. After all, in October 2008, Carney and the late Conservative finance minister Jim Flaherty were in the U.S. Treasury Cash Room with other G7 finance ministers and central bankers when the consensus was reached to backstop the banking system with liquidity to prevent a repeat of the Great Depression.
The momentum gathering behind him is such that there is speculation Chrystia Freeland, his presumed closest contender, may decide not to run after all.
Many Liberals believe the time is long overdue for their party to return to its traditional position straddling the centre of the political spectrum and that is where Carney would take them.
Francesco Sorbara is one of a growing number of Liberal MPs who are publicly proclaiming their support for Carney. In a statement on X, he said Canada needs “experienced, decisive and ambitious” leadership and it is imperative for “centrist Liberals … to grasp the seriousness of the moment.”
The Canadian political landscape is changing in other ways.
It appears we are not going to have a “carbon tax election,” as Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has been suggesting. If Carney wins, he will kill the consumer carbon tax. He said as much in an appearance at the Senate banking committee last year, when he said, “it has served a purpose up until now”. He reiterated his position on the Daily Show, when he said Canada has to “do our bit (on fighting climate change) but in a way that Canadians today are not paying the price.”
Carney’s position, repeated in various speeches, is that the world needs low-risk, low-cost and low-emission energy as it transitions from fossil fuels.
Carney believes Canada has low-risk and relatively low-cost oil but needs to do more work on the emissions side through technology like the Pathways Alliance carbon capture and storage project.
While he does not support a cap on fossil fuel production, he is committed to net-zero emissions by 2050 (as are the 50 oil and gas companies who signed the decarbonization charter at COP28 in Dubai in 2023).
Yet, he remains a proponent of ESG (environment, social and governance) investing that has become an anathema to many people.
And he is certainly not as enthusiastic in his support of Alberta’s oil and gas industry as is Poilievre, who is specifically proposing to build energy infrastructure like LNG plants, pipelines and refineries
Carney’s launch in Edmonton is symbolic because he grew up in Laurier Heights, in what is part of the Edmonton Centre riding. It is the city where his father once ran for the Liberals. But it does not mean he is committed to running in a province that has not been fertile ground for the Liberal party.
Conservatives have already pivoted from talking about “Carbon tax Carney” to attacking him as “a man with Trudeau’s politics and (Michael) Ignatieff’s personality.” “Not an outsider. Not change. He’s just like Justin,” ran one online attack.
That is going to be a challenge for Carney when it (or a variation of it) is the subject of a multi-million-dollar ad spend.
But the idea that Carney has offered unwavering support for Trudeau’s agenda is not quite right.
He told Stewart that “the (Trudeau) government has not been as focused on those issues (housing and the cost of living) as it might have been”.
While the current prime minister admitted he doesn’t give much thought to monetary policy during the 2021 election, and has often been more focused on redistribution than economic growth, Carney has been touting a very different public policy path.
Post-pandemic, he talked about economies being brought back into balance, with tests of debt servicing costs to revenue used so that the government of the day is not seduced by low interest rates.
In a speech last year, Carney talked about a “hinge” moment in history, with three possible responses: the first that was being followed by the Trudeau government of “spend, support, subsidize”; the second, which he suggested was being proposed by Poilievre, of “demolish, destroy, deny”; and a third, which he advocated, of using public money to catalyze private investment.
He has called for a new era of fiscal discipline and a focus on improving long-term productive capacity, rather than “reflex” spending to treat the symptoms but not the disease.
We are likely to hear variations of this speech, with some specifics on his “build, build, build” theme, along with echoes of the criticism levelled by Ignatieff at Stéphane Dion during the 2006 party leadership campaign that former Liberal governments “didn’t get it done.”
Carney’s biggest challenge is going to be how to convince everyday Canadians that he is in it for them, not himself, and that his policies will offer them some relief.
One intriguing comment he made to Stewart was that the timing of the next election “will likely be the choice of the governing party.” That suggests another difference with Trudeau if Carney is elected Liberal leader: He is not going to grub around seeking a deal with the NDP’s Jagmeet Singh.
If the Liberals are going off a cliff, Carney is going to be in the driver’s seat, with this foot on the accelerator.
It is a good bet that he will soon at least briefly be Canada’s next prime minister, and that the polls will start to narrow as we move into a general election.
Realistically, his best hope is to hold the Conservatives to a minority government.
The Liberal brand is probably too toxic for any Lazarus-like resurrection.
But a minority Poilievre government would offer the prospect of a rematch within a year or two. The alternative to running now would have been to try to rebuild the smouldering ashes of the Liberal party after a historic loss.
Carney himself remains a work in progress as a politician. Apparently, he did not appreciate the irony when he accused Poilievre of “seeing opportunity in tragedy” on the Daily Show, just before invoking the California wildfires as a justification for climate action.
But for many Liberals, he represents a feeling that they had forsaken: hope.
Take all of the above for what it’s worth. It is the received wisdom and it may well be out of date by the time you read this.
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