For years, it’s been assumed that the biggest threat to Canadian unity comes from the province of Quebec. It hosted a separatist terrorist movement in the 1960s and is home to the sovereigntist Parti Québécois. It held two referenda on separation, the last of which saw the country hang together by less than one per cent of the vote. Today, the party tops the polls and is threatening to hold another referendum if it takes power next year.
But the game has changed, thanks to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and U.S. president-elect Donald Trump. The biggest threat to the integrity of Canada no longer lies in the east, but in the west — namely, the province of Alberta. A showdown is looming between Edmonton and Ottawa over Canada’s upcoming tariff war with the United States — one that will start this week, when provincial premiers meet with the federal government to hash out a “Team Canada” response to Trump’s threats.
The battle lines are clear. Over the weekend, Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly said that, “Everything is on the table” when it comes to countering Trump’s tariffs, including withholding the four-million barrels of oil Alberta ships south every day.
This caused a backlash from Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who spent part of the weekend meeting with Trump at his Mar-A-Lago resort. “We won’t stand for that and you should never, ever threaten something you cannot do,” she said. Smith reminded Joly that western Canadian crude flows to refineries in Ontario and Quebec through Enbridge’s Line 5 pipeline, which runs through the U.S. Threats to cut off oil are thus “empty,” she added, and would fuel a national unity crisis.
Smith is not wrong. If the federal government isn’t careful, it could inflame the “Wexit” movement, which, for the first time, would be feasible, because it could find a willing partner in Washington. Trump thinks it would be great if Canada became America’s 51st state. But what parts would he want? Downtown Toronto, with its core of NDP and Liberal voters? The province of Quebec, which speaks a different language?
Nope. The prize would be Alberta, with its oil and conservative mindset. And its border with the Northwest Territories, which is adjacent to Alaska. If Trump got Alberta, his next stop would be striking a deal with the N.W.T., to increase America’s access to the Arctic and its undersea oil reserves.
And how would Albertans feel about joining the U.S.? In a December poll, 30 per cent said the province would benefit, the highest percentage in the country. Thirty-eight percent of Albertans also thought the province would be better off as its own country, while only 35 per cent of Quebecers felt the same about their province. A separate poll, released Tuesday, found that when asked if Canada as a whole should join the U.S., 18 per cent of Albertans agree — far from a majority, but the highest percentage in the country.
For this, we can thank Trudeau and Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault. Over the past decade, they’ve been determined to put Alberta’s oil industry out of business. Between their federal carbon tax, incoming emissions cap and general denigration of the resource as dirty and shameful, it’s no wonder that the West feels disrespected.
It feels like a rerun of Pierre Trudeau’s infamous National Energy Program, which caused thousands of Albertans to lose their livelihoods and spawned the bumper sticker, “Let the Eastern Bastards Freeze in the Dark.”
But Trudeau père was also concerned about national unity and would roll over in his grave if his son’s legacy was the breakup of Canada. As Trudeau prepares to exit stage left, our leadership cannot allow that to happen. Canada needs to present a tough, united front that respects all its provinces. If we don’t hang together, there is a real risk we will break apart.
Postmedia Network
Tasha Kheiriddin is Postmedia’s national politics columnist.