ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — If Bills coach Sean McDermott and quarterback Josh Allen are going to begin changing the narrative of Buffalo falling short against the AFC’s elite when it counts, this would certainly be a good weekend to start.
Lamar Jackson along with Derrick Henry and the Baltimore Ravens are set to arrive for a highly anticipated divisional playoff showdown on Sunday that’s already raising the spectre of worry in Buffalo.
After all, these are essentially the same, if not better, Ravens who trampled a young and injury-depleted defence and overwhelmed an Allen-led offence in a 35-10 win at Baltimore in Week 4.
And for all the regular-season success the five-time defending AFC East champion Bills have enjoyed, their history over that stretch is laden with too many playoff collapses.
Buffalo has been eliminated in the divisional round in each of the past three years — twice by Kansas City and once by Cincinnati — since losing to the Chiefs in the AFC championship game in the 2020 season.
The playoff losses have been enough for Bills fans to fix blame on McDermott by questioning whether the eighth-year coach is wasting the 28-year-old Allen’s prime years.
Fair or not, and no matter whether a similar case can be made for the Ravens’ playoff shortcomings under coach John Harbaugh since Jackson’s arrival in 2018, there is plenty riding on the outcome.
“Yeah,” McDermott said following Buffalo’s 31-7 wild-card playoff win over Denver on Sunday, in looking ahead to Baltimore. “I mean, this is what everyone’s been waiting for, right?”
Sure.
The question is how the Bills manage to overcome their worst performance of the season in numerous statistical categories — point differential, sacks allowed (three), yards gained (236), first downs gained (12) and yards rushing allowed (271).
There are tangible signs of hope, starting with the Ravens having to travel to Buffalo, where the Bills are 9-0 this season.
The Bills are healthier, particularly on defence, after fielding a lineup in Baltimore without three starters — linebackers Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano and nickelback Taron Johnson — and with safety Taylor Rapp playing 16 snaps before being sidelined by a concussion.
Buffalo’s offence is also transformed in having spent the season being more balanced and less reliant on Allen having to carry the entire weight. Of Buffalo’s 33 touchdowns rushing this season, including playoffs, 20 have come in the past nine games.
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There’s also the addition of receiver Amari Cooper, who was acquired in a trade nine days after the loss to Baltimore.
Though Cooper’s impact hasn’t been notable from a production standpoint, the 11th-year player’s presence provides defences another option to worry about on an offence that finished the season with 13 players with a touchdown catch.
The spread-the-wealth approach was apparent on Sunday. Buffalo combined for 471 yards (272 passing and a season-high 210 rushing). Allen completed passes to eight players, and the Bills had a 23-plus-minute edge in time of possession to wear down the Broncos.
Might that be enough to beat Baltimore on Sunday?
“We have a lot of competitors on this team, and when juggernauts come to town, the intensity is up and I love it,” left tackle Dion Dawkins said. “But we’ll see in a week.”
What’s working
Protecting the ball. The win Sunday was Buffalo’s 11th outing of the season without a turnover. The Bills are 8-3 in those games, including a mean-nothing regular-season-ending loss to New England.
What needs help
Red zone efficiency. The Bills production inside the 20 took a major dip against Denver, with Buffalo scoring a touchdown and three field goals on four opportunities, not including a game-ending possession featuring kneel-downs.
Stock up
WR Curtis Samuel. After being sparingly used for much of the season, the eighth-year player had three catches for a team-leading and season-high 68 yards, while scoring his second TD of the season.
Stock down
Special teams co-ordinator Matthew Smiley. Three weeks after being cautioned by McDermott to have more awareness of opponent’s faking punts, Smiley’s unit once again got burned when Broncos punter Riley Dixon completed a 15-yard pass to convert fourth-and-8 at the Denver 43 with Buffalo leading 10-7 in the second quarter.
Injuries
Rookie RB Ray Davis is in the concussion protocol. Reserve offensive tackle Alec Anderson is day to day with a calf injury. Returner Brandon Codrington (hamstring) is improving after missing one game.
Key number
6-6 — McDermott’s playoff record in Buffalo.
Next steps
Brace for the arrival of Jackson and the Ravens, whom the Bills defeated 17-3 in the 2020 divisional round in the only previous postseason meeting.