Premier Doug Ford might be kinda, possibly thinking about maybe calling an early election, but don’t bet on it yet. Yes, Ford has been toying with the idea of an early election since last spring, but he’s never been committed to it. Now, though, he may have no choice.
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At the end of December, I wrote that despite some top advisers pushing Ford to call an early election this spring, he wasn’t sold. He saw the prospect of an early vote as opportunistic and an unnecessary risk that voters may punish him over.
Smartly, I finished the column by saying, “Of course, this being politics, things could change. So, stay tuned.”
So what has changed in the past two weeks?
The looming threat of devastating tariffs from the incoming Trump administration which takes office in Washington next week. Ford believes the tariffs are coming and they will hit the province and the provincial economy hard.
“They’re targeting Ontario. They’re targeting good paying jobs in Ontario, and I’m going to fight with every tool I have in our toolbox to protect Ontario jobs or protect Canadian jobs,” Ford said, even if that means spending billions to support companies while the tariffs are in place.
“I think if it comes to it, and we have to spend tens of billions of dollars, we go to the people, let the people decide. It’s their money. It’s not the government’s.”
Ford said nothing has been decided and his closest political advisors say he’s not ready to push for an early election over the Trump tariffs yet, but he may get there soon.
His opposition leaders at the provincial legislature both made pitches for Ford to work with them rather than call an early election. Speaking in Windsor, NDP Leader Marit Stiles said that Trump’s tariffs are a real threat to Ontario’s economy but that requires everyone to come together.
“We are ready and willing to sit down and talk about anything that it’s going to take … to keep workers employed, to keep people well, and to push back against this threat to Ontario,” she said.
“I think it’s absolutely critical. I don’t think Doug Ford needs to go to the polls to get that.”
Speaking to reporters at Queen’s Park, Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie also called for Ford to drop the idea of an early vote.
“Absolutely,” Crombie said when asked is she would support the government spending huge sums to combat the tariffs.
“I’ve said from the very start, we need to collaborate, and we need to work together. We need a wartime effort.”
There is politics at play here on this issue from both parties, but there is also a very serious issue that must be addressed.
Obviously, Ford is well ahead in the polls and going to the voters in February with a vote in March would be advantageous to him. The opposition wouldn’t be able to attack Ford on the only issue that matters, the tariffs, at a time when they are all saying money must be spent.
There is also the fact that key Liberal campaigners, including some who helped Crombie win her party’s leadership, are currently occupied with the federal Liberal leadership race.
For the NDP and Liberals, they wouldn’t want to go into an election now because they are weak in the polls, don’t have as much money as Ford’s PCs and wouldn’t be able to effectively attack the premier at a moment of unity. They also know that if Ford waits until the fixed election date of June 2026 and the tariffs are still in place, the economy will be hurting making Ford vulnerable.
Politics aside, Ford does have a point that if he’s going to spend $80-$100 billion over the next year or so propping up the economy, he should ask the voters.
“That’s where we differ,” Ford said of himself and the opposition leaders.
Ford said he believes you’ve got to ask the voters before you spend their money in this way. We will see if voters buy that argument, if we end up with a late winter election.