The Texans have been locked into the No. 4 seed and haven’t played a meaningful game in weeks, but even with C.J. Stroud at the controls in Week 17 the offence failed to score a point in a 31-2 loss to the Ravens. Without Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell — and with the possibility of Chargers linebacker Denzel Perryman returning to minimize the damage of Joe Mixon — how many points can the Texans be expected to score against a Chargers defence that gave up a league-low 17.7 per game? J.K. Dobbins’ return gives the Chargers a running game and a balanced attack, and even if a thigh injury/illness keeps receiver Quentin Johnston out, the combination of head coach Jim Harbaugh and QB Justin Herbert has a distinct edge on DeMeco Ryans and Stroud.
Chargers 27, Texans 20
History can be an intimidating factor. The Steelers have won eight of the last 10 meetings, including the last three times the teams have squared off in January (17-10, 16-13, 16-13) at M&T Bank Stadium. Then there is Mike Tomlin’s record as an underdog (63-39-4 ATS) and Lamar Jackson’s record against Tomlin (3-5, including a TD pass/picks ratio of 8/9) and Jackson’s post-season numbers (2-4, 6/6) to consider. But the Ravens are a different team this season. Jackson threw 41 TD passes and just four interceptions and, with the addition of Derrick Henry, helped Baltimore to more ground yards than every NFL team, even the Saquon Barkley-led Eagles. Their defence, horrible at the start of the season, has made significant strides. The Steelers have fizzled down the stretch with four straight losses, and their best depth threat, George Pickens, can also be a pass-dropping ticking time bomb. And Tomlin’s record goes from great to poor (4-8 ATS) when he’s an underdog of more than a touchdown. But when Ravens receiver Zay Flowers was officially ruled out with a knee injury on Thursday, I flipped back to the Steelers, who won’t win but will keep it interesting.
Ravens 23, Steelers 14
If you’re looking for a playoff survivor pool pick, this is it. The Broncos were solely a defence-driven team until Bo Nix got some NFL reps and his hands on the wheel. But this will be the first playoff experience for Nix and it couldn’t come in a more hostile environment, created by Bills Mafia. Only the Detroit Lions have scored more than the Bills, led by Josh Allen, who is 4-0 in opening-round playoff games and expected to be named the NFL’s MVP. He’ll navigate around Patrick Surtain II and, with the Bills’ superior running game, score more than 30 points, as usual. Worth noting: The Broncos were 1-7 SU against teams with winning records, not including the Week 18 pounding they gave the Chiefs backups.
Bills 36, Broncos 21
Both Jordan Love (elbow) and Jalen Hurts (concussion) practised in full on Thursday, so expect both to play even though some of us never believed there was a real chance they wouldn’t. Both teams have good run defences, but Saquon Barkley should prosper with a heavy workload until Hurts gets into a rhythm after being sidelined for most of the last three weeks. The Eagles defeated the Packers 34-29 in Brazil in the season opener, but they only led by two until Jake Elliott kicked a field goal with 27 seconds left. Philadelphia was also only 4-4 ATS at Lincoln Financial Field, where just two of their victories were against teams that went on to make the playoffs. This will be a close one but in the end, the Eagles prevail because they have both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, and unlike Week 1, the Packers will not have cornerback Jaire Alexander (knee) to cover at least one of them.
Eagles 30, Packers 24
Tampa Bay head coach Todd Bowles has a reputation of confounding rookie QBs, and this season his Bucs went 6-2 against Jayden Daniels (in his first game as a pro), Bo Nix, Tommy DeVito, Spencer Rattler twice, Bryce Young twice and Cooper Rush, who isn’t young but lacks experience. They also gave up an average of 22 points (excluding the 30-7 victory over DeVito and the Giants, which shouldn’t really count) so it’s not like he shut down the opposing QBs. No matter, this one does have the makings of a shootout, as the Bucs were the NFL’s fourth-highest scoring team and the Commanders were fifth, while Tampa Bay was 16th in points allowed and Washington 18th. The difference will be QB Baker Mayfield’s experience and the Bucs’ No. 3-ranked ground attack against the Commanders’ No. 30-ranked run stop unit. Tampa Bay running back Bucky Irving will be the star of Sunday night.
Bucs 32, Commanders 28
(Game to be played at State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Ariz.)
The NFL announced the venue change on Thursday because of wildfires in the Los Angeles area. That eliminates any home-field advantage for the Rams. QB Sam Darnold and the Vikings have had a great season, but that 31-9 loss to the Lions in an important Week 18 showdown is so fresh on everyone’s mind, as is Darnold’s 18-of-41 passing performance. Both teams have a very good running back and two great receivers, but in a 30-20 loss to the Rams in Week 8, the Vikings managed just two second-half field goals after scoring 14 first-quarter points. As unexpectedly superb as Darnold was in 2024, he has a reputation for wilting under heat. Minnesota had 49 team sacks, compared to the Rams’ 38, but Matthew Stafford thrives when blitzed, with an 8/2 touchdown pass-to-interception ratio in such situations and a higher completion percentage. Stafford is also 4-1 in the post-season (including a Super Bowl win) since being traded by the Lions, with the one loss being by one point against Detroit. Darnold’s next playoff start will be his first.
Rams 28, Vikings 23
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