There was a time when caged canaries were kept down the pits to warn miners of an imminent disaster such as an escape of lethal gas.
The unfortunate bird would keel over and pop its avian clogs at the first whiff of gas and allow the workers to escape.
The expression “canary in the coalmine” has more recently come to indicate an early warning of some serious situation about to occur and had there been a caged canary in the Brockmoor and Pensnett ward of the Dudley political constituency in December.
It would surely have been flat on its back by now with claws waving feebly in the air.
On the 19th December 2024 there was a council byelection which saw the Labour vote plunge by 34% and Reform UK surge by 30%.
The Tories actually stood still but won the ward from Labour.
On the same day Reform actually won the Swale (Kent) ward from Labour with a vote increase of 33% and a Labour decline of a similar percentage.
So as the leaders of our political parties get stuck into the new year what conclusions can they draw?
The Liberal Democrats have nothing to celebrate as even the slightest twitch of the Tory dial will see swathes of rural seats turn blue again.
Ed Davey may well have a future in the circus but it’s no laughing matter for his party.
Labour has a real presentational problem and while the big decisions such as compensation for the post masters and mistresses and for the victims of the infected blood scandal are universally welcomed and long overdue the limiting of the winter fuel allowance to those most in need and the embarrassment of a previous expression of support for those women who were the unwitting losers of the equalisation of the retirement age have struct a discordant note with the electorate.
A case can be made in justification for all these actions and for the limiting of inheritance tax allowance for farmers to only half what applies to the rest of the nation but this winters tale is not a happy one for the government.
There is no sign of Reform surge fading – but it will be a bumpy ride – Stephen Pound
The Tories have yet another new leader but she has signally failed to make any impact on the voting intentions of the electorate and her party is marooned on the same level of support as before Kemi hove into view.
In Scotland the SNP are in a death spiral but Labour needs to do more than oppose. A four-way split in the vote will be nerve shredding for politicians in the Caledonian fastness but a source of fascination for those who have no skin tin that Highland game. Which leads us inevitably to Reform UK.
The old UKIP party went up like a rocket and fell down to earth like the stick.
For Reform to avoid that fate this time it needs to build a solid base of national support from Parish Council level through local branches to regional and national successes.
So far, the indications are that this is work in progress but to date there is no sign of the surge fading away.
The true tests will come about in the spring with local elections. Should Reform maintain their lead and outflank the Tories to the right and Labour to the left then we are all in for a very bumpy ride indeed.
It was seasonal joy for Nigel this December in Swale and in Dudley but it remains to be seen if Reform is for life and not just for Christmas.