Labour risks facing a “kicking” at the 2026 Welsh Parliament Election as Reform UK looks set for a breakthrough in Cardiff, an ex-Minister has claimed.
Wales could soon witness a historic political shift after Labour held its position as the principality’s largest party in every election since 1918.
A recent poll conducted by Cardiff University suggested Plaid Cymru is polling ahead on 24 per cent, with Labour and Reform UK narrowly trailing in joint-second on 23 per cent.
The 2026 Election will also see a major constitutional change as the number of Senedd Members increases from 60 to 96 and an entirely proportional system is rolled out across the country.
Nigel Farage during a visit to Wales
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Discussing the potential struggles facing Labour in Wales, Llanelli Senedd Member Lee Waters wrote: “At the start of devolution in 1999 a distress call from Wales for extra funding to match EU-aid went unheeded by the UK Treasury and Welsh Labour paid the price. A quarter of a century of history may be rhyming.”
He added: “The UK Labour Party will wring their hands if Reform get a foothold in Wales in May 2026, and Welsh Labour face a ‘Scottish moment’ which will take a generation to recover from.”
Waters said the “recipe for recovery” in Wales was “being presented as a focus on “bread and butter’“issues and better communication, not a deeper challenge to the system of power and inequality”.
The Llanelli Senedd Member, who is facing a local challenge from a resurgent Reform UK, is stepping down at the next election.
David Costa, who is a member of Welsh Labour’s executive committee, criticised the former Minister on the social network Bluesky.
He wrote the analysis “would be a lot more convincing had his ham-fisted presentation and implementation of the intrinsically sensible 20mph policy not sparked a hugely damaging populist backlash”.
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“Democratic politics is about convincing others not just parading your own virtue,” Costa added.
However, Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorweth claimed that the ex-Minister’s blog post showed a “realisation Labour is in a very very difficult situation”.
He added: “We are seeing signs of people within Labour admitting that sense of inevitability of Labour leading government in Wales is no longer there.”
But First Minister Eluned Morgan warned Labour activists about the possibility of losing the 2026 Election.
In a message released just before Christmas, Morgan said: “In July, we achieved a historic victory in the general election, securing 27 of 32 Westminster seats in Wales.
“We won because of you. Every member who delivered a leaflet, called a voter, or knocked on a door played an essential role in our success and in shaping the Welsh Labour Party we are today.
Welsh parliament
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“Your effort means that people up and down Wales are now seeing the benefits of two Labour Governments who share the same values, working in partnership to deliver for Wales.”
She added: “Our two Labour Governments are changing lives every day, and for families up and down Wales, this Christmas will look a little brighter than before.
“But last week was also a reminder of what’s at stake. Reform, Plaid Cymru and even the Tories are breathing down our necks.
“In 2026, we will fight the most challenging Senedd election campaign in history, with new seats and under a new and challenging electoral system.
“But I want to see us secure as many votes as possible and ensure that we are the largest party – continuing that 102 year winning streak in Wales. Because we have only ever made change happen by being in power.
Nigel FaragePA“I want to be straight with you. In 2026, everything we have achieved will be risked if we lose power. The things people take for granted – like free prescriptions, free bus passes for the over 60s, free school meals for primary school children.
“There’s a battle on all fronts – and we must be ready to take the fight to them. We are facing a tough 18 months, but this is a moment of opportunity to show exactly what we can do and to remind people what we have already achieved.
“That’s why I’m asking for your help. We need you to help get the messages out. To remind people of the difference we have made and what is at risk.
“We need you to help amplify your success and demonstrate how we have delivered through re-posting on social media, talking to your friends and neighbours, participating in campaigning and if you can afford it – contributing to our Senedd election campaign.
“I am up for the fight, I am ready to lead the campaign – but I can’t do it without you.”