In an event that should have occurred months ago, Justin Trudeau has finally resigned and left the Liberal Party with no next steps, unless it is onto a rake.
While many party loyalists and media pundits are quick to proclaim that fresh leadership will revive the party’s fortunes, a closer look reveals disastrous eventualities.
First and foremost, with Trudeau now politically cooked, Liberal partisans will turn on each other. Before a new leader can be chosen, the party must first engage in a fierce battle over the rules of the race. With various methods for running this contest, the chosen rules will likely benefit some candidates while sidelining others.
Expect a chaotic power struggle to unfold as factions within the party seek to gain the upper hand, turning what should be a unifying process into a free-for-all. After all, why would supporters of presumptive-candidate Mark Carney accept a set of rules that favour Chrystia Freeland?
To make matters worse, Liberal membership rules create the perfect storm for corruption and chaos. The only requirement to vote is that you are 14 years old. Further, the points system is not weighted by riding. This means that one motivated group or cause could heavily influence the race. Even more terrifying is the risk of foreign interference, given that the party does not require citizenship to vote in the contest.
And while the Liberals tear each other apart, their focus will inevitably shift away from the upcoming election. With leadership races often taking up significant time and resources, the party’s attention will be diverted from critical campaign preparations. Who will handle staffing? Who will secure nominees in key ridings? How can they plan the leader’s tour and messaging without even knowing who that leader is and what they believe? All these critical elements will hang in the balance, leaving the party ill-prepared for the electoral battle that looms on the horizon.
Meanwhile, the Conservatives are watching this internal turmoil unfold with glee. Expect the Conservatives to exploit similar opportunities in the new Liberal race. Historically, the Conservatives have capitalized on chaos in opposing ranks, as seen in the 2008 federal election when divisions among Liberals, including clashes between Stephane Dion and Michael Ignatieff, turned leadership debates into Tory attack ads. Expect the Conservatives to exploit similar opportunities in the new Liberal race, exacerbating tensions while enjoying the fallout as Liberals clash with one another.
And of course, Trudeau’s continued presence and policies will haunt the Liberals for the foreseeable future.
What kind of lame duck PM will Trudeau be as Donald Trump threatens to lay waste to Canada’s economy with potential 25% tariffs? Especially given his new statement he just put out lauding Trudeau’s resignation. Will Trump even meet with Trudeau now? Why would he?
Will Trudeau hide like Biden did or will he go YOLO and spend taxpayer money like crazy and travel the world for photo ops on the hunt for his next NGO job?
Will Trudeau defend his record even as Liberal candidates attack it?
Adding to the complexity, in this unregulated pre-writ period before an election is officially called, savvy stakeholders will also play a major role. Without regulation, this new pre-writ period will mean key union, association and corporate interests will want to influence both the Liberal leadership race and the next government’s agenda. So expect to see the likes of public sector unions warning about cuts and natural resource interests advocating for industry.
Undoubtedly, the next few months will be a wild ride. But while it’s a sad series of events that have led us to this point, it doesn’t lack for entertainment value. So, grab your beer and popcorn and enjoy the show.
– Jeff Ballingall is the president of Mobilize Media Group, a digital public affairs firm that helps shape the strategies of leading Conservative politicians and corporate leaders