After a four-year-long border standoff, India and China arrived at a detente in October. But can it survive Trump?
New Delhi, India — When China announced the creation of new counties last week, it marked out borders that included swaths of land that India claims as part of Ladakh, a region administered federally by New Delhi.
India was quick to respond with a public protest. The country’s Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson, Randhir Jaiswal, said New Delhi had “never accepted the illegal Chinese occupation of Indian territory in this area”. China’s announcement, he said, would not give any “legitimacy” to Beijing’s territorial claims.
The latest spat between the Asian giants underscores the fragility of a detente they declared along their contested border in October, after a four-year-long eyeball-to-eyeball standoff between their troops. The neighbours withdrew many of their soldiers, even though questions about the future of land that was previously Indian-controlled but that China has allegedly grabbed since 2020 remain unanswered by both sides.
Now, the India-China relationship appears poised for another big test, say analysts: United States President-elect Donald Trump.
The former president, who effectively launched a trade war with China in his first term, has threatened to impose 100 percent tariffs on imports from China. But while describing Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a “good man”, Trump has also threatened tariffs against India.
As the date of his inauguration – January 20 – approaches, Trump appears to have mellowed a little on China, a country central to the business interests of the incoming US president’s ally, billionaire Elon Musk, who is poised to also have a role in the administration. All of that is sparking unease in sections of India’s strategic community.
Trump “has the tendency to flatter his enemies and unsettle his friends”, said Jayant Prasad, a former Indian diplomat.
In November, soon after winning the US presidential election, Trump said he would “save” the Chinese-owned social media app TikTok, which he had once sought to ban. Trump has also extended an invite to Chinese President Xi Jinping for his inauguration. Beijing has neither accepted nor – at least publicly – rejected the invitation, though some analysts have said that Xi is unlikely to turn up.
On the other hand, Trump is not known to have sent a similar invitation to Modi, with whom the US leader held two joint rallies in 2019 and 2020, in Houston and the Indian city of Ahmedabad. Indian social media is full of memes mocking Modi, suggesting that Minister of External Affairs S Jaishankar’s visit to Washington late last month was aimed at pleading with team Trump for an invitation for his boss.
Trump’s ambivalence towards China troubles New Delhi, said analysts, who warned that either extreme – an extra-harsh anti-China campaign from Washington or a deal with Beijing – would be bad for India.
“There are twin dangers for India in the second [Trump] term,” said Christopher Clary, non-resident fellow of the Stimson Center, and an associate professor of political science at the University of Albany.
“Trump and his team might be more hawkish than New Delhi’s preferences, especially on trade and investment flows that compel India to make choices it would not like to make,” he told Al Jazeera. “Alternatively, it [Trump’s team] may try to make a grand bargain with China to burnish his credentials as the ultimate deal maker. It would leave India in the lurch.”
Prasad too said that while he expected India-US relations to stay strong, there could be hiccups if Trump decides to strengthen ties with Beijing.
In an editorial, the Global Times, the Chinese Communist Party’s mouthpiece, last week argued for an approach to ties that focuses on cooperation between Beijing and Washington, especially in fields like technology. The US, under President Joe Biden, has imposed a series of sanctions and other restrictions on Chinese tech, especially on semiconductors. China has hit back with its own curbs, including on the export of critical minerals to the US.
India, for its part, is trying to ride the uncertainty over Trump’s approach to China. Modi is expected to host a meeting between leaders of the Quad grouping – which includes the US, India, Japan and Australia – in 2025, for which New Delhi wants Trump to travel to India. Meanwhile, China will host the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation this year, for which Modi might travel there.
After clashes between Indian and Chinese troops in Ladakh’s Galwan in May 2020 left at least 20 Indian soldiers dead, New Delhi cracked down on Chinese apps – banning TikTok. India increased its scrutiny of Chinese investments and infrastructure projects in the country, citing national security concerns. But as incoming foreign investment overall slowed down, India’s Ministry of Finance in 2024 made a case for encouraging Chinese investment again.
Amitabh Mathur, a former special secretary at the Research and Analysis Wing, India’s external intelligence agency, said he believed that the US had been aggressive in its approach towards China in recent years and had succeeded in positioning itself as a leading power in the Asia Pacific. Stronger US-India ties have been central to Washington’s pushback against Beijing in the region.
While most experts expect Trump to continue with that broad approach, the presence of allies like Musk in his team could temper what the US president does, some point out.
“I think the US pivot towards India is unlikely to change in the broader Indo-Pacific context — while he will try to have a better deal with China,” said Anil Trigunayat, a retired Indian diplomat and strategic analyst. “Musk and other industrialists in his team will no doubt try to tamper with his excessive tariff plans.”
Just how much is the question India will want an answer to.