A Reform UK insider has told GB News how his party plans to turn the Red Wall turquoise blue in the next General Election.
The inside scoop comes after a new mega-poll finds Reform would win 120 seats if a General Election were held tomorrow, while Labour would see the number of MPs drop to 278.
The poll, which used survey data from 17,000 people, cited migration as a primary reason for this shift, with many of Labour’s so-called “hero voters” — those who switched from the Conservatives or voted for Labour for the first time — now considering Reform UK
The pollsters, from political strategy firm Stonehaven, called it a “wake-up call” for Sir Keir Starmer, emphasising the need for Labour to address voter concerns about migration more effectively if they aim to retain or regain voter support in future elections.
A familiar story
The results are in line with a recent seat-by-seat analysis by More in Common, which predicted that the Red Wall gains made by Labour earlier this year would be almost entirely reversed if an election were held tomorrow.
Using survey data from more than 11,000 people between October 31 and December 16, the poll found areas in the North and Midlands could swing to Reform UK.
Labour could lose 67 seats to Reform UK, alongside losses to other parties, indicating a significant erosion of their majority, reducing their seats from 411 to 228.
A new mega-poll finds Reform would win 120 seats if a General Election were held tomorrow
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The poll points to Reform establishing two particularly strong regional bases in South Yorkshire/North Nottinghamshire and Tyne and Wear. This would establish a significant bulkhead in Parliament, the pollsters predict.
Even though much can and will change this far out from the next General Election, Farage’s party will feel encouraged by these results.
As a party insider tells GB News, taking the Red Wall is “step one” for Reform as it looks to take on the two main parties.
“If you want to beat Labour, it’s in its traditional heartlands – not its new heartlands, not its university towns and public sector worker heartlands – but its traditional heartlands,” they told GB News.
The insider added: “Then there’s no point in voting for a party that doesn’t know what it believes and doesn’t know what it’s for.”
As they note, Reform must supplant the Conservatives to become the dominant opposition to Labour if it’s to turn the Red Wall turquoise blue.
“To win the Red Wall, we have to convince the people opposed to the government that the way to vote is to vote reform. Therefore, we have to convince them that the Conservative Party aren’t in the game,” the insider explained.
There are reasons to be optimistic.
The recent More in Common poll found that in most constituencies in Lincolnshire, Reform UK has overtaken both the Conservatives, showcasing a particularly strong performance in rural areas.
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Immigration has been an open goal for Reform as voters punish the two main parties
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The poll indicates that Reform UK’s vote share is now between 21 and 30 per cent in Conservative-held seats, establishing them firmly as the second-place party in these areas.
The poll highlights Boston and Skegness, where Reform UK has solidified its hold, increasing its vote share from 38 per cent to 47 per cent. This constituency is currently held by Reform UK’s chairman, Richard Tice.
The revelation that Labour could see a max exodus of voters to Reform over migration is also encouraging but not entirely surprising.
Immigration has been an open goal for Reform as voters punish the two main parties over their inability to bring numbers down.