For awhile, 2025 was shaping up to be a great year for Ontario Premier Doug Ford. Things were lining up nicely for a widely expected spring election. There was the feel-good advertising blitz, the $200 cheques for nearly every Ontarian, the promised gridlock-busting tunnel under Highway 401, the early arrival of a new era in alcohol retailing.
The un-dynamic duo of NDP Leader Marit Stiles and Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie continued to split poll support pretty much evenly, the key to another PC majority.
To make it even better, president-elect Donald Trump threatened Canada with huge tariffs, a move that would be devastating to Ontario’s economy. While feckless Prime Minister Justin Trudeau reflected on what to do about the problem, Ford jumped in and showed leadership, standing up to Trump. Ford made the case that he was the best choice to defend Ontario in challenging times, offering a somewhat plausible reason to seek four more years now, rather than in June of 2026.
The only thing that could spoil Ford’s party was the collapse of the Trudeau government. It was always the wild card that could upset plans for a spring provincial election, but if Trudeau was good at one thing, it was clinging to power. All he had to do was hang on into the fall and the window for Ford’s spring election would be open.
Not even ardent Trudeau critics could envision that he would be stupid enough to fire his loyal finance minister, Chrystia Freeland. The PM’s ill-considered decision vaporized what was left of his support and a federal election seems more likely than ever.
Now Ford’s hands are tied. Even if the federal election does not go ahead in the next few months, the fact that it might likely kills any plans for a spring vote in Ontario. The only scenario where an election could go ahead is if Trudeau prorogues Parliament and the Liberals hold a leadership convention.
If that opportunity does not arise, there won’t be an Ontario election later this year. People don’t want two elections in one year, especially without a clear reason for a provincial vote. Back-to-back elections would also mean PC candidates would have to contend with donor and volunteer fatigue.
The PC government’s reaction to the change in political landscape has been muted. Now that a spring vote is unlikely,the story has been leaked that the premier never intended an early election anyway. All that convincing pre-election manoeuvring was really just a way to mess with the opposition parties’ heads. Maybe, but that would have been a lot of effort for little return. Does a party leader give his own MPPs an end of 2024 deadline to declare their intentions to run if he’s not thinking of an election?
Delaying the election until next year is a negative for Ford in a number of areas. For the PCs, it would have been desirable to run with Trudeau still in power, offering daily reminders of Liberal ineptness while federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh clung to the wreckage of the Trudeau ship.
The PCs would have tied the unpopular federal Liberal and NDP leaders to their nondescript provincial counterparts. With a provincial election next year and an expected Conservative government in Ottawa, the script will flip, with Crombie and Stiles blaming Ford for any missteps taken by a Pierre Poilievre administration. Poilievre’s election would also end the temporary opportunity for Ford to lead on foreign affairs.
A provincial election while public and media attention was fixed on the drama in Ottawa would have been good for Ford. An election that doesn’t capture public interest is ideal for an incumbent government with a big lead in the polls.
Instead, Ford can look forward to the Ontario election being a major political story next year. To succeed, Ford and his government will now have to pivot from electioneering to governing. They have 17 months to show progress on their many plans to deal with Ontario’s many problems.
Key among them is the estimated 2.5 million Ontarians who don’t have a family doctor or nurse practitioner. Last fall, the PCs appointed former federal health minister Jane Philpott to tackle the issue, with the goal of primary care for everyone within five years. By the middle of next year, people should expect results.
Housing would receive a great deal of attention from a Poilievre administration, and Ontario is falling far short of its own goals. Ford will likely face friendly fire from Poilievre on this issue, but it’s not an easy problem to solve.
At least Ford can likely cross one problem off his list. With a mandated June 2026 vote, he won’t have to explain why he’s holding an election.
National Post
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