Wind back to this time 10 years ago and the world looked a very different place. Brexit was still just a glimmer in Nigel Farage’s eye.
The odds on Donald Trump becoming president or Boris Johnson being prime minister were both long-shots, and William Hill had the Donald on 150 -1.
As the year progressed the odds on Trump narrowed but one lucky William Hill customer stood to pocket £55,000 if all their 17 separate bets came in on the outsider triumphing.
Boris fared better with Ladbrokes halving the odds on him making it to No10 to 5 – 1 following his announcement he would run for Parliament again once his second term as London mayor ended.
Keir Starmer isn’t that sure that 2025 will go as smoothly as Keir Starmer hopes
PA
As for Brexit, European bookmakers still thought the chances of the UK staying in the EU were 60 – 40 in favour.
At the time I wrote: “My personal position on Europe is that we are better off in, though I don’t think it would be a disaster if we pulled out.”
And so it has turned out. Brexit has neither been the outstanding success Boris Johnson promised nor the massive catastrophe David Cameron and his Chancellor, George Osborne, predicted.
Some of the negative effects that might have been blamed on Brexit were masked by the greater and unexpected event of Covid.
Research by one gambling outfit back then put the chances of the Earth crashing into the Sun as higher than a devastating worldwide pandemic.
You might remember supermarket shelves being empty. This was partly put down to 16,000 European truck drivers based in Britain at the time going home.
What could not be established was whether that was due to frustrations over Brexit red tape, or simply a desire to be with their families as the pestilence struck.
OTHER NIGEL NELSON OPINIONS:
Nigel Farage is targetting gains for Reform UK at the expense of Labour in 2025
PA
There will be rumblings this year that Keir Starmer is secretly plotting to take Britain back into the EU. He isn’t. Brexit is done and dusted and can’t be reversed.
But trying to strike a better relationship with our biggest trading partner is surely no bad thing.
There will also be attempts to do other deals with Washington and Beijing. Chancellor Rachel Reeves is off to China this month. It will be a tricky feat to pull off all three.
Britain’s top pollster Sir John Curtice says predicting the future is a mugs game, but as we begin another year I cannot let that cup pass me by.
A lot of what will happen will depend on Donald Trump and whether he carries out his threat of trade tariffs which would wreck global growth.
Our new ambassador to Washington, Peter Mandelson, will have his work cut out trying to get an exemption for the UK. He has already signalled his willingness to enlist Nigel Farage to help which would be wise.
Elsewhere on the international front there are signs that the Ukraine war will end in a negotiated settlement and a permanent ceasefire in Gaza appears to be within reach.
But elections in Germany, Canada and Australia could change the geopolitical map. Olaf Scholz, Justin Trudeau and Anthony Albanese are all vulnerable.
Back at home Reform UK is set to pick up a couple of new MPs in by-elections, with the first possibly as soon as next month.
And I predict the biggest challenge for the PM will be planning reform. He is going to have to be ruthless to reach his targets of 1.5 million new homes and doubling onshore wind and those affected are not going to like it.
I’m facing the prospect of a massive solar farm on my doorstep, with thousands of 3.5metre high panels covering an area the size of 150 football pitches.
There is already a well-organised local campaign to try to stop the development going ahead. I won’t be joining it. My wife, Claire, will.
And that’s my other certain prediction for the year. Claire will spend most of it grumbling about the Labour government. Fair enough. I had 14 years moaning about her Tory one.
Of course, 2025 may go as smoothly as Keir Starmer hopes. But I wouldn’t put a bet on it.