Every team wants a scoring center with size.
This is especially true in Calgary, where you can count the number of big, top-six pivots over the years on one hand. Sean Monahan, Olli Jokinen, and Joe Nieuwendyk are the few, memorable names who check this box.
Which is no doubt why Flames fans are eyeing Dylan Cozens. A seventh-overall pick of the Buffalo Sabres, Cozens is a 6’3″, 210-pound right-handed centre who already has a 31-goal, 68-point season under his belt. Nevertheless, the player has cropped up in recent trade rumours due to the Sabres’ perpetual struggles.
With a growing collection of picks and prospects, the Flames could accelerate their rebuild by swapping some of them for the 23-year-old. Superficially, it seems like a no-brainer, but we need to dig beneath the surface to really understand if it would be worthwhile.
First, there’s a reason the Sabres, an organization desperate for any level of success, would be willing to move Cozens. Despite his size, skillset, and draft pedigree, his results have been mediocre in aggregate during his NHL career.
His notable 31-goal, 68-point season in 2022-23 stands out as a stark outlier so far. Ignoring his 41-game rookie season, Cozens has scored at a 43-point pace in three of his four NHL seasons.
Taken altogether, Cozens’ point pace of 1.81/60 at five-on-five over five seasons is pretty good, basically the lower end of what you’d expect from a capable top six forward. This number is significantly propped up by his one big season, however. If we drop that from the cumulative total, his rate drops to just 1.60/60 (roughly third-liner production).
Cozens has never placed higher than fifth on the Sabres in team scoring and has not developed into the tip of the spear of the Buffalo attack. Even this year, Cozens is currently eighth in points, behind no fewer than three defenders (Owen Power, Bowen Byram, and Rasmus Dahlin).
Not every pivot has to be an offensive superstar to be effective, of course. Unfortunately, Cozens also doesn’t defend or drive play to any notable degree. Only three players on the Sabres have worse expected goal ratios on Buffalo in 2024-25 so far, and the Sabres have never finished with a positive goals-for ratio with Cozens on the ice so far in his career.
If we look at who Cozens plays against, he’s a middle rotation option skating against other teams’ second and third-liners. Versus elite competition, he has the second worst shots-for ratio on the Sabres. His expected goals-against rate of 2.85/60 at even strength is also third worst.
This is a very long way of saying that Cozens profiles as a third-line player right now and not much else. His offensive production straddles the typical second- or third-line forward, and he does not have the defensive or two-way prowess to consistently play tough minutes.
If you were wondering why the Sabres might be willing to move on from Cozens given their desperation to climb out of the Eastern Conference basement, this is why.
Cozens will also be both expensive to acquire and to retain. Despite his uneven results and average results this year, the Sabres will be loathe to lose a trade with both Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart finding success elsewhere after leaving the organization. Dealing the player for anything less than a clear win would be embarrassing for those in charge.
Cozens’ contract is also substantial. He inked a seven-year, $7.1-million per year deal after his apparent breakout in 2022-23, a number his current level of play does nothing to justify. It’s a deal that will be seen as a millstone unless he can take a substantial step forward.
For the Flames, Cozens would not be an instant addition to the top of the rotation or the core player group. Instead, he would be something of a reclamation project. The team would have to have faith that they could unlock the 30+ goal, 70-point player that appeared two seasons ago, rather than settle for the 40-point player he seems to be currently.
Calgary would also face significant risk if Buffalo demands future first-round picks as part of the package. Surrendering a top-10 or top-five pick in the draft could put a large dent into their rebuild efforts, especially if Cozens doesn’t take a meaningful step forward.
As in all trade scenarios, the boring answer to the Cozens question is “it depends.” The Buffalo Sabres are now notorious for failing to leverage their young talent, so Cozens could be hiding some unrealized potential.
On the other hand, not every young player with size and skill actually turns into a difference-maker in the NHL. The player will turn 24 in February and should be entering the prime of his career, but all of his results have fallen back for two years in a row. A big asking price and a large contract make Cozens an expensive rebound bet, with the downsides being potentially significant if things don’t work out.
Notes
Dylan Cozens:
- Former 7th overall draft pick in 2019
- 6’3″, 210-pound right-hand centre (so rare, highly valued kind of player)
- Scored 31 goals and 68 points in 2022-23
- Turns 24 in February
Why people are considering Cozens for the Flames
- Young centre with size and pedigree
- Flames system does not have a lot of centres in it
- Centres with size are considered a key element for building a competitor
Why Cozens is a bad bet
- Mediocre production and play driving in the NHL to date
- Aside from his one notable season in 2022-23 — a season in which many Sabres experienced career-high offensive output — Cozens has struggled to score at even a moderately good rate in the NHL
- Big contract ($7.1M) until 29 years old. If he doesn’t improve, the contract is a terrible millstone. It was anchored against his 68-point season, which is a big outlier so far