Fireworks may not be the only thing dancing in the New Year’s Eve sky tonight.
After issuing a strong geomagnetic storm watch for Monday night into early Tuesday morning, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center said it was also watching for a minor — possibly moderate — event beginning this evening that could set the stage for a year-ending northern lights show for many Canadians.
The latest space weather events come as the sun expelled a pair of coronal mass ejections (CME) directed at Earth over the weekend — burps of solar material and magnetic fields — with the first, a G3 event on NOAA’s scale, arriving early this morning. The second is on a fast approach and gauged as a G1 with potential for upgrade to G2.
The best viewing for the aurora borealis is estimated at between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m. EST.
“We will not know the true potential of geomagnetic disturbance levels of response until the CME(s) arrive one million miles from Earth (when they will be about 30-60 minutes from reaching our planet) and their structure and intensity can be measured by our solar wind observatories,” NOAA wrote in its Monday evening media statement.
When the CMEs do arrive, radiated particles expelled from the sun are pulled into the upper atmosphere where, upon interacting with nitrogen and oxygen atoms, they create colourful and cascading emanations.
Unlike the “severe” storms that led to awe-inspiring and rare aurora sightings throughout North America in October, the current event means people living in or near large cities likely won’t enjoy another viewing.
“Go out at night. Get away from city lights,” NOAA advises in its viewing tips. “The full moon will also diminish the apparent brightness of the aurora.”
Tonight’s moon is in a waxing crescent phase, offering a mere one per cent illumination, and comes after a rare black moon, the second new moon within a calendar month, according to NASA.
The University of Alaska Fairbanks said under clear skies highly active auroral displays may be visible overhead in Edmonton, Winnipeg, Thunder Bay, and other locations along the northern parallels. Canadians in more southern reaches, and even some in the northern U.S., could also see it low on the horizon.
The most recent NOAA forecast map shows a view line encompassing almost all of Canada.
“Given the right vantage point, say for example on top of a hill in the northern hemisphere with an unobstructed view toward the north, a person can see aurora even when it is 1,000 (kilometres) further north,” NOAA counsels.
Regardless of their location or vantage point, hopeful skygazers will need the weather to cooperate.
As of early Wednesday, it wasn’t looking promising for many with overcast or partly cloudy skies in the forecast. Based on Environment Canada forecasts, parts of Alberta, the Maritimes and the B.C. interior have the best chance to catch a glimpse of the lights, while most others are expecting overcast skies of varying degrees.
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