Looking into the political crystal ball is always a hostage to fortune.12 months ago, most expected a Labour Government to be elected in 2024, but few thought the Conservatives would get their worst result since the 1830s. Political pundits were sagely predicting Joe Biden would beat “unelectable” Donald Trump. Meanwhile Nigel Farage was spending time in the Australian, rather than political, jungle.
A week is a long time in politics, making the last year feeling more like a generation. Labour got its expected landslide win, with an incompetent and gaffe riddled campaign seeing the Conservatives reduced to a reduced rump. Yet almost from the moment they entered office Labour have jumped between gaffe and scandal, add poor judgement, betrayal of pledges and economically damaging tax rises, to create a perfect mix for losing votes. It may sound hard to believe just seven months after their landslide win, but by this time next year Labour could have a new leader.
Kemi Badenoch will be under pressure in 2025 after struggling in the polls since her leadership began.
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Does this mean HM Opposition can sit back and confidently look forward to success in Election 2029? No.
There was no Badenoch Bounce, but neither would there have been a Jenrick Jump or a Cleverley Climb in the polls. Opposition Leaders don’t get the platform of Government and with a media mix much more diverse than back in 1974 or 1997, simply getting “balance” based opportunities in broadcast media will not secure public attention for Kemi’s ideas or renewal plan.
Whilst no-one expects the Conservative manifesto for the next election to be published in 2025, Kemi will need to be clearer about what she is offering. How would our nation look under a Conservative Government and create a refreshed party, which has listened and learned from the reasons for its defeat. Statements like leaving the ECHR is “on the table” create a vagueness which pleases few. Voters respect politicians with a clear sense of purpose, the Conservative Party needs to define and outline it’s over the next year.
Nigel Farage and Reform will continue to put huge pressure on the Conservatives next year.
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This need to find a purpose will also be driven by the performance of Reform. Nigel’s entry into the General Election campaign excited many voters compared to the inept efforts of Rishi Sunak and uninspiring Sir Keir Starmer, helping to secure millions of votes. Whilst this left Reform with only 5 MPs, it has given them a platform which was turbo charged by the election of Donald Trump. Nigel’s first win of 2025 could be a major Government U-turn on surrendering the Chagos Islands, as President Trump’s Administration will instantly drop US support for Starmer’s sovereignty surrendering deal.
Just like UKIP a decade ago, Reform is now starting to take big chunks of support from Labour, mostly based on the type of “Gas and Groceries” focus Trump used. Yet, like with UKIP, Reform too often briefing out it is expecting an amazing by-election result, makes a good result look like a defeat. For example, Reform recently heightened expectations of by-election wins in Essex and Dudley, only to find itself in second place behind the Conservatives, despite a large swing to them.
2025 won’t be the decisive year in terms of any reconciliation, deal or arrangement between the Conservatives and Reform. Yet a Labour Government, heading further left under a new Leader, pushing Britain even faster over the economic cliff, would create the conditions and pressure for these 2 voting columns to come together and remove it.
How will this happen? My political crystal ball is still a bit cloudy on this! Yet it will happen at some point before the next General Election.