Game Day 35: Edmonton at Los Angeles
Edmonton Oilers return to action after a five day holiday break on Saturday afternoon (2 p.m. MDT) against an old and bitter rival, the Los Angeles Kings. For one Oiler, the return to his former home may represent a fresh start to a season that hasn’t gone well.
I speak of right winger Viktor Arvidsson, the showcase among the bevy of free agents the Oilers added/returned to the fold on an action-packed Canada Day signing spree. From day one, indeed from the opening paragraph of this Cult of Hockey post announcing the signing, it seemed obvious that Jeff Jackson and the Oilers envisioned him as the solution to fill a long-standing void on Leon Draisaitl‘s right flank.
The 31-year-old winger had become a free agent with the expiry of the seven-year, $29.75 million pact he’d signed in Nashville in the summer of 2017. He spent the last three of those seasons in L.A., where he’d posted posted 52 goals and 71 assists in 161 games, an impressive average of 26-36-62 per 82 games.
Problem: that’s only two seasons worth of games, over the course of three seasons in Tinseltown.
Similarly, the Kings had played three playoff series over those three years, all of them first-round losses to the Oilers. Arvidsson notched an excellent 10 points in 11 games in two of those series, but missed the other one (2022) entirely.
As I wrote that day when the signing was imminent:
- His durability is the biggest question, with an average of 60 GP during his nine full* NHL seasons. (*Nashville played 69 games in 2019-20, 56 in 2021). Overall, his attendance rate has been around 77%.
In Arvidsson’s first season as an Oiler, the durability issue has again come to the forefront. After a slow start that saw him collect just 5 points through 16 games, the 5’10, 185-pound winger was sidelined with a hip issue that started as a “game time decision” but ultimately resulted in five weeks on the sidelines.
Only in the week before Christmas did he return to the line-up as a rusty fourth liner vs. Boston, then getting a bump to the third line against San Jose. In the last game before the break, he got something of a break of his own when he got the call to fill in on the top unit in place of the ailing Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. He took full advantage, burying a Connor McDavid feed to open the scoring, then chipping in a primary assist on Zach Hyman‘s game winner on the powerplay.
RNH has since recovered and as per Friday’s practice has resumed his normal spot alongside McDavid and Hyman on the first line. But Arvidsson has managed to hang around in the top six, where it appears he will rejoin Draisaitl. Which seems to have been the original plan; it just took him a while to get back there.
The chain reaction set opff by RNH’s return continues right down the line-up. Draisaitl’s prior RW, Kasperi Kapanen gets bumped down a line to the third unit, where he’ll switch to the left side alongside Adam Henrique and Connor Brown. The prior occupant of that LW spot, Mattias Janmark, will assume the 4C position, replacing Derek Ryan who will be healthy scratched.
The most significant change among all of these adjustments is surely the reinsertion of Arvidsson at 2RW, where there is every reason to expect improved offensive output. After all, this is a player who has averaged well north of 2.0 points per 60 at 5v5 in five of his previous eight seasons, none of which were spent with a linemate quite the calibre of the magnificent Draisaitl.
In this table adapted from Natural Stat Trick, the right-most column reflects a significant drop-off in Arvidsson’s productivity at 5v5 in the first part of 2024-25, where his 1.19 P/60 current stands as his lowest such total since he was breaking into the league in 2015-16. Of course the season remains young, especially so for the Swede who has played just 19 games so far. So there’s plenty of time to regress towards the mean, indeed that process may have already begun last game.
For sure he needs to find some offensive chemistry with Draisaitl, with whom he has played for 160 of his 253 minutes at 5v5, over 63%. So far Arvi has mustered just 2-1-3 in those minutes for a paltry 1.13 P/60.
The underlying numbers suggest that the duo has deserved better than the 5-5 split of real goals that have happened in those 160 minutes, in which Edmonton has had 63% of the shots, 63% of the high danger chances, and 58% of expected goals. It stands to reason that if the twosome continues to drive play at that rate, the goals will come.
To which Oil fans can only add, the sooner the better.
Compare and contrast
Interesting comparison here with Kings winger Warren Foegele, the former Oiler who crossed the aisle to sign with L.A. on the very day that Arvidsson did the same in Edmonton. $3.5 million cap hit for Foegele, $4.0 for Arvidsson, so very comparable.
A year ago, Foegele, a natural LW, played 6½ hours at 5v5 with Draisaitl, mostly on the right side. All he did in that time was score 8 goals and 11 assists for an average of 2.94 points per 60. That comprised a nice chunk of his season output of 20-21-41 which included 17-20-37 at 5v5 (2.19 points per 60).
So far in 2024-25 the durable Foegele has continued to produce with 9-9-18 through 34 games, every single one of those points coming at 5v5. Make it a tidy 2.40 points per 60 so far, with an impressive on-ice goal share of 22 for, just 11 against. Of late the sturdy winger has played on an imposing line with Quinton Byfield and Tanner Jeannot that brings a nice (if you’re a Kings fan, that is) combination of size, speed, and physicality.
Good for him, I say. Six months ago the Oilers saw fit to “upgrade” at his old position, and in due course will reap what they sow. On Saturday afternoon fans of both teams will get their first chance to compare the two middle-six wingers who switched organizations in what amounted to a quasi-trade on that landmark day.
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