Reform UK are on the march. If you thought their haul of four million votes and five seats in the July general election marked their high-water mark, you may have to think again.
Opinion polls now show a tight three-way race between the Tories, Labour and Reform. Local council by-elections are showing an increased Reform presence on the ballot and some pretty good results, mixed in with some spectacular ones.
Most intriguingly of all, some bookmakers have made Nigel Farage the favourite to be the next Prime Minister. Remember, it was the betting markets which accurately predicted Trump’s victory last month, not the polling industry.
Musk’s donation to reform could be a game-changer.
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Moreover, rumours swirl that Elon Musk might be minded making a $100m donation to Reform. A cheque of that size is meaningful enough to a US Presidential campaign. In the relatively impoverished arena of British politics, it would be an epic game-changer. Funding on anything like that scale and Farage wouldn’t just start outspending his opponents, financially he would blow them out of the water.
It’s important to underline that Farage has poured scorn on whispers of a mega-donation. Musk himself hasn’t said anything to confirm the suggestions (unless a few generically pro-Reform tweets are proof of tens of millions of pounds shortly arriving).
However, let’s imagine a scenario – whether now or later – in which Elon Musk decides he wants to save Britain from becoming a “tyrannical police state” and he has decided he’d like to throw a bit of loose change ($100m is indeed loose change for him) in Farage’s direction.
What could or should the British government do to stop it?
Of course, there’d be endless screaming about foreign interference in our democratic processes. Although given Labour sought to facilitate dozens of “volunteers” campaigning for Kamala Harris, this presumably would be based on the scale of that interference, not the principle of it.
It is near impossible to stop Elon Musk donating to Reform UK.
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Musk would need to find a legal UK-based vehicle to donate directly to a political party here. But that shouldn’t prove problematic for a man of his means. Any company conducting legitimate business in the United Kingdom is entitled to donate. We don’t insist that board members must all be British citizens for the donation to be permissible.
A cap could possibly be imposed – no donation of more than £1m per company per year, for example. But how difficult would it be to set up or acquire a few dozen different companies?
Crucially though, politics is not just about elections or even parties.
Musk could set up a Reform-sympathetic think tank, technically separate from the party, but spending millions a year on honing policies and messages. He could set up a nationwide magazine or newspaper – and run it a massive loss – to promote pro-Reform messages. He could hire huge venues for massive rallies where the speakers were typically senior Reform spokesmen. He could burn through tens of millions quickly – providing a huge boost to a political party without directly donating to it.
If Musk – or some other foreign billionaire – wishes to get involved in the British political process, it is near impossible to stop it, unless we are serious about declaring their nation of origin an enemy state. How much influence does the Musk-owned Twitter/X platform already have on British politics? Quite a lot. How are you going to try and regulate that?
Information, education, propaganda, arguments, and ideas all now flow across borders at a bewildering speed. That impacts on our politics and leaves a domestic regulator neutered.
If Elon Musk does want to get more heavily involved in UK politics, you can try to ignore him. But you almost certainly can’t thwart him.