Welcome back.
Christmas is over and so is the longest break of the season, so far, for the Edmonton Oilers.
While everyone else was getting fat on holiday cheer, the Oilers were doing their best to stay lean and mean during a five-day hiatus that ends with a feast of hockey — five games in eight days starting Saturday afternoon in Los Angeles.
When we last saw the Oilers they were tearing through the best teams in the NHL to complete a statement-making run that left no doubt they are apex predators again. After sitting below .500 at the 14-game mark, they are 11-2-0 in their last 13 and 15-4-1 in their last 20, with pre-Christmas wins over Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Vegas, Boston and Ottawa.
They survived Stage One of the schedule: The Hangover.
This was where they were still in shock from last year’s Cup final and wished they could bypass the regular season and get right to the playoffs again.
It lasted 14 games and they went 6-7-1, with two of the wins coming against Nashville and another against Detroit. The penalty kill gave up 10 goals in the first seven games, both goalies had sub-.900 save percentages and the offence ranked 30th in the league. They sat 22nd overall and 10th in the West.
Then came Stage Two: Quit Screwing Around.
This is where they stopped feeling sorry for themselves and got back to the business of playing some hard, solid hockey. It lasted 11 games and they went 7-3-1. They penalty kill gave up two goals in 11 games, the offence came to life and they climbed to 14th overall and eighth place in the West.
They just wrapped up Stage Three: Hit The Gas.
This is where they started feeling the energy again, started playing like a contender again and began making up for lost time. It lasted nine games before they had to shut it down for Christmas. They went 8-1, scored 39 goals in the nine games (10 of them from Zach Hyman) and their goaltending was lights out. They now sit seventh overall and fourth in the West.
Which brings us to Stage Four: The Dog Days.
This is where they grind out the middle of the schedule — 21 games in 41 days until they shut it down for the 4 Nations Face-Off on Feb. 8.
This is where they lower their heads, push through the monotony and start committing their game to muscle memory so that all of the elements that worked so well for them in an adrenaline-packed Stage Three become second nature.
Here are some things to watch between now and Stage Five:
Beating odds against the Kings
After eliminating Los Angeles in the first round of the playoffs three years in a row, there is every chance the Oilers and Kings will meet again this year. It’s fair to wonder, even worry, about the odds catching up with them. Saturday’s first game back will be Edmonton’s first opportunity to see how they measure up against an improved and highly motivated Kings team.
Surpassing Golden Knights and Jets
As much as the regular season is rendered meaningless once the playoffs start, it’s not really meaningless. Standings matter. If the Oilers had home-ice advantage against Florida last June they might be the ones showing off their rings today. Edmonton needs to catch Vegas in the Pacific and Winnipeg in the West because these are potential playoff showdowns that could easily come down to a Game 7.
The dog days are about churning out points and when you’re trying to track down two of the best teams in the league from a five- or seven-point deficit there isn’t much room for error. So that Dec. 29 game in Anaheim and Jan. 4 against Utah mean more than you think.
Evan Bouchard’s struggles
Evan Bouchard is a guy you can count on in the playoffs. He was a rock star last spring, putting up 32 points in 25 games (17 points in 12 games the year before that) and played solid tenacious defence in his own end.
But he’s got the yips right now and needs to sort that out between now and the stretch drive. Analytics go out the window in a playoff series — it’s too small a window for things to even out over time — so one or two ill-timed blunders can mean the difference between moving on or going home. Bouchard’s history says he’ll be ready when the time comes, but it would be nice if the transformation started fairly soon.
Finding playoff form by trade deadline
The best time for a contender to figure out what it needs at the trade deadline is when the team is near the top of its game. Instead of patching holes, the general manager gets to bolster and reinforce. This deadline is going to be huge for GM Stan Bowman, so the more information his team can give him between now and then the better. That means picking up where they left off in Stage Three and rounding into playoff form before March 7.
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