In trying to determine just where the Maple Leafs are at the Christmas break and where they might be in the coming months, you need to understand more about Auston Matthews health.
With him in the lineup, playing the way he can, even playing the way he has played in recent playoff seasons, the Leafs have a chance to be the best team in a rather diminished Eastern Conference.
Without him in the lineup, or with Matthews playing the way he has most of his first season as captain, the Leafs have next to no chance to being a contender come playoff time.
That all seemed so clear on a rare weekday afternoon game in Toronto, with Mark Scheifele doing everything for the Winnipeg Jets that might not be possible were he opposing Matthews in the lineup.
It wasn’t just Matthews missing again against the Jets. It was Matthews and this mystery injury missing. He has become the player the Leafs need most and explain least. Against the almost great Jets the Leafs were beaten 5-2. Against the not-close-to-great New York Islanders on Saturday night at home — the kind of game you have hold serve in — the Leafs played with little structure and less heart in getting plowed by the Islanders.
It isn’t the way you want to go into the four-day holiday break, said the former captain John Tavares. He said it with purpose. The coach said it. Other players said it. Leafs have some cleaning up to do.
One of those details is getting Matthews healthy.
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This has been a season of reasonable optimism for the Leafs under new coach Craig Berube. There has been a lot to like about what the Leafs have accomplished — and yet a lot there’s almost to wonder about.
The Leafs head to the break with 44 points in 35 games played. That gives Berube one more point than Sheldon Keefe’s team had a year ago. That’s all. A one point difference.
The Leafs are playing at 103 point pace right now. They had 102 points a year ago. And yet, the teams couldn’t be more different.
Keefe had the Leafs second in the NHL in scoring last season. This year, they’re 13th in goals for.
Last year they were 12th in goals against. This season, coach Berube has had the team in the top 3 until recently when a series of high scoring games has seen the Leafs drop to the eighth overall in goals against.
They finished 12th in goals against last year.
The difference in scoring, puck dumping, forechecking and north-south coaching aside, what this really comes down to production from Matthews. He has 11 goals right now. A year ago, as a Hart Trophy contender, he had 29 goals.
On most nights this season, the Leafs have defended better than they did under Keefe, have played a more responsible style of hockey, have received better goaltending, and it has shown not necessarily in wins but in the way in which the club competes.
But what has also become: The loss of Matthews has finally caught up to this group. They can compensate, as anyone could, only so long while missing their best player. Especially when their best player is a centre who would have lined up against Scheifele on Monday afternoon.
What also became obvious Monday, if it hasn’t been all season long: The presence of Chris Tanev on the Leafs defence is enormous. If he hasn’t been the Leafs’ most valuable player through 35 games, he’s certainly a top 2 contender for the title.
The Leafs didn’t dress Tanev Monday for the first time this season. He’s the kind of player who is already nursing some kind of hurt, so the day off was a reasonable gesture on the past of Berube. Just not a gesture they can afford very often. The goals Winnipeg scored Monday were almost all within inches of the goal line. Would they have scored had Tanev been playing?
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What Tanev brings in positioning, in smarts, in understanding the difference between winning and losing, cannot be replaced with the addition of a seventh defenceman. As much as the Leafs need Matthews healthy and strong come April, they also need 24 good minutes from Tanev.
Last May, Tanev was hurt in Game 4 of the Western Conference final playoff series between the Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers. Dallas led 2-1 after three games. They didn’t win a game after Tanev went down and missed part of the fourth game.
That’s how much Tanev mattered to the Stars. Really, that’s how much he means to the Leafs right now.
With a healthy, productive Matthews and a semi-healthy minute munching Tanev on defence, the Leafs line up rather nicely in the East. Without them, you can forget about it.
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