Do not burn the midnight oil staying up to watch Florida play in Edmonton for its implications on the Maple Leafs holding first place in the Atlantic Division.
There are bound to be lead changes galore between now and April 17 when Toronto completes its 82-game schedule against Detroit — and not just between the Leafs and Panthers.
With Boston and Tampa Bay hot on the Leafs’ heels and the recent rise of the Ottawa Senators to wild-card playoff status, this could be the best divisional horse race in a while.
Instead of Christmas separation, there are indications Ottawa could finally realize its potential to challenge the Atlantic’s three recent Cup winners and the perennially playoff-hexed Leafs.
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As for Detroit, Montreal and Buffalo, we’re not so convinced about a turnaround.
Back to the Leafs, who’ve won 19 of 31 under new coach Craig Berube and held top spot by two points pending Panthers-Oilers heading into Monday night. It would be a welcome change for Toronto to nail down top spot, gain home-ice advantage and draw a wild-card team in the first round rather than the steady diet of the Bruins, Lightning and Panthers.
But be careful what you wish for, as the two happenstance qualifiers as of today are Tampa and Ottawa, to be determined by how much the Metropolitan Division winner is ahead or behind the Atlantic champ.
Only once have the Leafs survived the 82-game rigors of the modern NHL to finish first in regular season — Pat Quinn’s team did it in 1999-2000. Otherwise, there was the extremely close call in 2004 when NHL Stats listed them holding first place as late as the last night of the schedule on April 4, before Boston beat New Jersey to edge Toronto 104-103 in points.
There is no wire-to-wire Atlantic leader this season — or in any of the four divisions. Stanley Cup champion Florida was just shut out back-to-back and has a record of 7-8-1 in its past 15,
Tampa already has endured a four-game losing streak. Boston’s start was an uninspired 8-9-3 during which it fired coach Jim Montgomery, while Ottawa had a five-game losing streak before finding its mojo and Linus Ullmark made his full impact in net.
Save your sweating for the final hours to the March 7 NHL trade deadline and the Leafs’ eight divisional games that follow.
PATCHES GETS PHYSICAL
Winger Max Pacioretty’s return to health has meant even more body contact initiated by Toronto.
Starting with his flattening of Jack Hughes in New Jersey a week ago, Pacioretty has been helping set a physical tone on offence with the down-low digging of linemate John Tavares. Pacioretty led the Leafs’ 37-hit effort in Sunday’s 5-3 win over Buffalo with five.
The Leafs rank 10th in hits per 60 minutes (23.6) and eighth in blocked shots in regulation (16.6).
RECORD FOR REPEAT OFFENDING
Yes, that was a league first on Sunday when defenceman Chris Tanev took the Leafs’ only two penalties of the game in the opening and closing minute.
Since 1917, NHL Stats lists only 10 players who served their team’s only minors of a game in the first or last five minutes, including Eric Lindros and Jarome Iginla. But none were called earlier (the 30-second mark for interference) or later (a hook with 13 ticks remaining) than Tanev.
Buffalo scored on its first power play, but the game was out of reach when Tanev went off again.
EX-MARLIE NOEL HELPS HABS
Nice to see Noel Hoefenmayer find a place in the AHL closer to Toronto and back in the Marlies division.
The former Don Mills Flyer and 2020 CHL defenceman of the year with the Ottawa 67’s was the Leafs farm team’s top-scoring blueliner in ‘22-23 with 11 goals and 37 points in 65 games. But he was not brought back, signing an entry-level deal with the Edmonton Oilers and their Bakersfield Condors farm team.
Traded this month to the Habs, the six-foot Hoefenmayer had an assist for their Laval Rocket affiliate in his weekend debut. The move back East delighted his father Rupert, who grew up a huge Montreal fan in Hogtown and created a fully tiled bleu, blanc et rouge Canadiens’ themed bathroom in the family home. It includes many team logos and the outline of a rink on the floor.
“All my friends were Maple Leafs fans,” Noel told the Montreal-based RDS network. “I don’t know if they liked that bathroom.”
LOOSE LEAFS
The Leafs had Monday off, resuming practice Tuesday before a game Wednesday in Dallas … The NHL holiday roster freeze launches at midnight Wednesday through Dec. 28. All players on an active roster, injured reserve, or with non-roster and injured non-roster status, are exempt from waivers, trades and loans, subject to some CBA exceptions … More on Tavares and his three goals on Sunday, which gave the Leafs natural hat tricks in consecutive seasons (Auston Matthews had one last February) for the first time since the 1970s. Tavares’ 66th multi-goal game passed Brad Marchand for sixth among active players … While the Leafs historically have struggled against the Sabres (Buffalo’s 123 wins against the Leafs are the most against any team other than their long-time division rivals Montreal and Boston), William Nylander is now on a 10-game points streak against the Knives.
X: @sunhornby