Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has so damaged the Liberal brand in Canada that for the foreseeable future it appears nothing can fix it.
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Not a temporary GST tax break, not the “mini-budget” Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland will deliver on Monday, not a cabinet shuffle and not bringing Mark Carney into his cabinet or government.
Abacus Data CEO David Coletto reported last week that according to its polling, Trudeau is now less popular among Canadians than U.S. president-elect Donald Trump.
The poll found 26% of those surveyed had a positive impression of Trump compared to 23% for Trudeau, while 58% had a negative impression of Trump compared to 61% for Trudeau.
Commenting on the poll on X, Coletto said:
“Traditionally, a Canadian leader would garner a rally-around-the-flag effect when defending national interests against a foreign leader seen as antagonistic.
“But if Trudeau’s negatives are outpacing Trump’s, it implies that many Canadians may not trust him to effectively stand up for the country or manage these confrontations.
“In practical terms, this could weaken Trudeau’s hand politically.”
A poll by Nanos Research last month found that when Canadians were asked who they viewed as the most appealing potential candidate for the Liberal leadership, the most popular answer was “none of the above” at 26%.
That was followed by Carney at 18%, Trudeau and Freeland at 11% and everyone else named in the poll — Christy Clark, Francois-Philippe Champagne, Melanie Joly, Anita Anand, Dominic LeBlanc and Sean Fraser in single digits.
That suggests that Canadians not only lack confidence in Trudeau, but anyone who could replace him as leader.
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The best and perhaps only chance the Liberals had for not being stomped in the next federal election, which has to be held by October 25 at the latest, unless there’s a snap election, would have been for Trudeau to resign months ago — as some of his own MPs called for him to do.
Now it’s too late to do much good, even if Trudeau were to decide to resign over the winter holiday break after taking a walk in the snow.
With the polls showing Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre leading the Liberals by double digits for months, it will take a long time for the Liberal brand to recover.