The Met Office has forecast a chance it may be a warmer Christmas than usual in Northern Ireland after the weather group said there is currently “no sign of prolonged and severe cold” during the festive season.
UK bookies are already offering odds of 3/1 that it will snow in Northern Ireland on Christmas Day — a 25% probability — with parts of Scotland the favourites.
The UK Met Office defines a white Christmas as at least one snowflake being observed at one or more of its reporting stations on Christmas Day.
Traditionally, the organisation used a single location to define a white Christmas — the Met Office building in London.
The Met Office said that technically, 2023 was the last white Christmas in the UK. It said 11% of stations recorded snow falling, although none reported snow lying on the ground.
However, Northern Ireland has not had a ‘white Christmas’ since 2022 when Lough Fea recorded snowfall at about 5pm on Christmas Day. Glenanne in Co Armagh later recorded heavy sleet at about 7pm.
However, 2024 could continue the tradition of a less-than-white Christmas in Northern Ireland as a spokesperson said at this time the forecast for the week of festivities is “uncertain.”
“Weather forecasting further into the future than a week is extremely tricky,” a Met Office spokesperson said.
“Forecasts at the range of a fortnight become a lot less certain and a lot less granular, both temporally and spatially.
“Trying to determine a forecast for a specific county for a specific day this far out is highly challenging and very uncertain – the best forecast indication that we have with this lead time is that conditions are likely to be unsettled.
“So at the moment, I think the best we can say is there isn’t a strong signal for prolonged and severe cold.
“The forecast for Christmas Day will begin to firm up toward the end of next week.”
According to the Met Office, they can “accurately forecast if snow is likely on any given Christmas Day up to five days beforehand”.
“Since 1960, around half of the years have seen at least 5% of the network record snow falling on Christmas Day,” they said.
“This means we can probably expect more than half of all Christmas Days to be a ‘white Christmas’.
“However, the Dickensian scene of widespread snow lying on the ground on Christmas Day is much rarer.”
The Met Office has said snow in particular is very difficult to forecast.
“There are a number of factors that our expert meteorologists look for and numerous competing elements that all have to be exact for snow to actually fall,” they said.
“Sometimes, just a fraction of a degree in temperature can make the difference between the chance to build a beautifully formed snowman, and the joys of a sleety slushy day.
“That’s why forecasting snow weeks in advance is extremely tricky.”
In the lead-up to Christmas, the Met Office forecasts this weekend as “mainly dry” with Saturday bringing a bright morning with sunshine and a few showers.
“Thickening clouds in the afternoon with a little rain in the evening. Westerly winds strengthen later with a maximum temperature of 7°C.”
From Sunday to early next week, the forecast is: “A mild and quite a windy few days. Often dry with some bright spells and just the odd patch of rain, mainly in the west.”