The problem with the Trudeau government when it comes to the nation’s finances is that you can’t rely on anything it says.
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The reason is that it keeps moving the goalposts — goalposts that it itself set — to the point where taking this government at its word is a bad idea.
In her April 2024 budget — just eight months ago — Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said three things were important for “maintaining Canada’s responsible fiscal anchor.”
They were, to quote from Freeland’s 2024 budget:
— “Maintaining the 2023-24 deficit at or below the Budget 2023 projection of $40.1 billion.”
— “Lowering the debt-to-GDP ratio in 2024-25, relative to the 2023 Fall Economic Statement, and keeping it on a declining track thereafter.”
— “Maintaining a declining deficit-to-GDP ratio in 2024-25 and keeping deficits below 1% in 2026-27 and future years.”
— “Budget 2024 is consistent with the government’s fiscal anchor and these fiscal objectives.”
Given that these were the government’s own fiscal targets set by the finance minister herself, one would expect they would be consistent with her fall economic statement to be released on Dec. 16.
Apparently not.
When Freeland was asked Tuesday whether she would meet her own fiscal anchors in her own budget in April, she responded: “In next week’s fall economic statement, you will see that the government is maintaining its fiscal anchor.
Specifically, reducing the federal debt as a share of the economy over the medium term. I expect that the debt-to-GDP ratio projected in the spring budget for the fiscal year 2023-24 will be met.”
But when asked about the deficit, given that parliamentary budget officer Yves Giroux said last month it’s likely the government has already blown past its $40.1 billion target, up to $46.8 billion, Freeland responded with one of the Trudeau government’s patented word-salad answers that didn’t address the question.
“I chose my words with care, because it is important to be clear with Canadians,” Freeland said. “It is important to be clear with capital markets.”
So, has the Trudeau government achieved its own deficit target Freeland set just eight months ago in its own budget? Who knows?
But what we do know is that this is not how a government that wants to be straight with the public behaves.