Less than two weeks ago, Syrian President Bashar Assad seemed to have a solid grip on power. Top Iranian and Russian military officials operated openly and freely within the country. Supply lines from the Islamic Republic of Iran, through Syria, replenished Hezbollah forces operating in Lebanon.
Then, quite suddenly, we began to hear about a loose amalgam of rebel forces that was conquering cities and towns in northern Syria and pressing on towards Damascus. But everyone — including Assad — assumed that the rebels would be contained.
Over the weekend, however, everything changed. On Sunday, rebel forces entered the capital and Assad was reported to have fled the country. Later, Russian media confirmed that Assad and some of his family members were in Moscow, having been granted asylum by Russian President Vladimir Putin on humanitarian grounds.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) appears to be the group leading the rebels, who share one common goal: to rid Syria of the despotic Assad regime that has tyrannized the country for more than 50 years. The rebels are all Sunni Muslims with a strong fundamentalist bent.
Abu Mohammed al-Julani, the leader of HTS, was born into middle-class comfort and became increasingly radicalized over time. Following a five-year prison term in Iraq, where he was fighting with al-Qaida during the American-led invasion, he returned home and founded the group’s Syrian offshoot. For reasons that are not entirely clear, he formed HTS in 2017.
Al-Julani is being described by some as having matured into a more pragmatic leader. Exactly what that means in terms of navigating the treacherous factions vying for influence in Syria remains to be seen. The snippets of videos that have been posted on social media and other websites since Saturday show what appears to be a jubilant population welcoming the rebel advance.
These rebels are different — on the surface, at least — from the rough Taliban types. The initial face of the regime, broadcast on Syrian state television, was clean-shaven, dressed in civilian attire and delivered a polished message in measured tones.
Al-Julani has apparently dropped his nom de guerre, preferring his given name, Ahmed al-Sharaa. This would appear to be part of a strategy to present a kinder, gentler image to the West. Meanwhile, the United States has a US$10-million (C$14-million) bounty on him.
Quite remarkable footage posted on X showed Syria’s prime minister being escorted from his office to a car that was apparently going to take him to the Four Seasons hotel. He is surrounded by men, some of whom are armed, but the overall scene is calm. What transpires when the cameras are not around may be very different, indeed.
Meanwhile, Russian military personnel have reportedly been scrambling to leave Syria with as much equipment as possible. Turkey is the main benefactor of HTS, which creates tension with Iran — the regional puppet-master until now, with Lebanon-based Hezbollah being its most powerful asset.
Suddenly, the land bridge from Iran to Lebanon, through Syria, has been blocked. This means that the already weakened Hezbollah militia has lost its primary supply line.
And then there is Israel. After armed rebels were spotted along the border between Israel and Syria, Israeli forces entered the buffer zone between the two countries. As a preemptive measure, Israel took control of the Syrian side of Mount Hermon — a magnificent snow-covered peak that towers over the landscape. The Israeli Air Force has also been busy hitting as many targets as possible in recent days, in an effort to minimize the possibility of rebels taking possession of huge stockpiles of chemical and conventional weapons.
Military analysts in Israel and abroad have been stunned by how quickly the Assad regime was toppled. Then again, they shouldn’t be. Hezbollah has been severely weakened and Hamas has been nearly obliterated. Iran, which relied on Hezbollah as its main deterrent against Israel, has consequently been diminished.
And in the midst of this chaos, Hamas released the second proof-of-life video of an Israeli hostage in as many weeks. Unverified reports in the Israeli press state that Hamas operatives are working to ascertain where the hostages are being held and what condition they are in.
Qatar, suddenly, has invited Hamas leaders (who it expelled in recent weeks to Turkey) to return to Doha so that they may work together to negotiate a deal for the hostage release. The axis of terror — controlled by Tehran — seems to be wobbling.
And all the players in this heightened scenario are very mindful of U.S. president-elect Donald Trump’s numerous ultimatums to clean up the many messes, but especially the hostage crisis.
A week ago, Trump threatened that there will be “all hell to pay” if the hostages remain in captivity when he takes office on Jan. 20. “Those responsible,” he wrote on social media, “will be hit harder than anybody has been hit in the long and storied history of the United States of America.”
The “Trump effect,” you might say.
National Post
Vivian Bercovici is a former Canadian ambassador to Israel and the founder of the State of Tel Aviv.