The Bristol region is likely to miss housebuilding targets by nearly 10,000 homes, according to a new report. The report by Centre for Cities suggests proposed planning changes will not be enough to meet Labour’s target by 2029.
Avon has been given the ambitious goal of building 7,827 new homes a year – nearly triple the number currently being built by the private sector. Analysis of data spanning 80 years shows that, even if private development in the area were to rise to the same level as seen during the peak of housebuilding, the sector would only be able to deliver 5,444 new homes annually.
Based on these calculations, it’s estimated that over the next four years private development would fall nearly 9,550 new homes short in Avon – 30% below the area’s target. Centre for Cities also says the shortfall is unlikely to be bridged in full by public sector housebuilding within that time.
Nationally, Centre for Cities estimates that the government is likely to miss its housebuilding target by at least 388,000 homes. The analysis shows how housebuilding is constrained by the discretionary planning system in cities and by the green belt – explicitly established to block suburban development.
Centre for Cities say neither of these is adequately addressed in the Government’s latest proposals for housing and planning, and greater public sector intervention is needed. Andrew Carter, Chief Executive of Centre for Cities, said: “Rightly, the Government has set a bold housebuilding target. For the country to achieve it, parts of England would have to reach an 80-year high in housebuilding. This would be a huge positive for the country but the approach has to be much more ambitious.
“We’re in a productivity crisis. The UK’s big cities are the jobs and productivity engines of the economy but our planning system doesn’t allow – and has never allowed – them to build an adequate supply of homes for everyone that could work there.”
In response, Labour has said they will ask authorities who are otherwise unable to meet local housing need to review their Green Belt to identify opportunities. They are also taking action to improve planning capacity, including recruiting 300 extra planners, and say they will deliver the biggest social and affordable housing increase in a generation.
The government is pinning its hopes on housebuilding to reboot the economy and address the housing shortage, but the strategy hinges on local authorities setting ambitious targets for new private housing projects.
A spokesperson for the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government said: “Despite the dire housebuilding inheritance we are trying to fix, we will deliver the 1.5 million homes our country desperately needs and get Britain building again.
“To get there the government has already outlined plans to streamline the planning system, restored mandatory housing targets, established a programme to unblock homes stuck in the planning process, and set up a new body to deliver the next generation of new towns. On top of this our Planning and Infrastructure Bill will go even further in overhauling the planning system to boost housebuilding and economic growth across the country.”