Not only is it the most critical off-season faced by Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins during his tenure in Toronto, it may be one of the most complicated.
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With baseball’s winter meetings scheduled to get underway in Texas on Monday, there is so much at stake for the beleaguered Blue Jays front office and such a seemingly muddied route to get the team where it needs to be.
For better or for worse, it all begins with the Jays much-discussed (and obscenely exorbitant) pursuit of the darling of this year’s free-agent class, Juan Soto. Once again, the Jays are on the lure of the big fish looking for a different result than a year ago when they helped drive up the price that the Los Angeles Dodgers paid for Shohei Ohtani.
Even if the team lands Soto — which I suppose is possible given reports suggesting Rogers Communications is tossing chips like the big-boy owners in New York, but it still feels like a long shot — it’s just the top of Atkins’ lengthy to-do list.
So why is this year more profoundly important for Atkins and the front office than previous editions? Let us count the way.
Start at the top, where team president Mark Shapiro is reportedly only under contract through the 2025 season, while Atkins has only two more years on the Rogers payroll. Surely company CEO Ed Rogers must have them on the clock in some form.
Then there is the fractured state of the team’s farm system, ranked 23rd in MLB by Baseball America. The front office would have you believe it’s nowhere near as grim as that, but the reality is that almost any meaningful improvement will have to come externally, which further exacerbates the urgency of the coming weeks.
Then there is the matter of the organization’s reputation. It’s become no secret that extreme top-end free agents look hard at the winning potential as a pairing to the riches courting teams offer. As recently as two years ago, the Jays were far more attractive in that regard. Now? They are a last-place team in which the cornerstone of the previous optimism — Vlad Guerrero Jr. — is less than 12 months away from being a sought-after free agent.
Perhaps most concerning is the breadth of improvement needed on a roster suddenly leaky throughout. After historic lows in runs scored and home runs, the Jays certainly need some offence, hence the need for a big bat like Soto’s.
But beyond that, there is plenty to extend Atkins workload beyond Wednesday when the winter meetings wrap up in Dallas. The bullpen needs a near complete rebuild after the team non-tendered closer Jordan Romano and is at least a couple of impact arms away from building a formidable group.
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Offensively, the team will be hoping for a return to form (and health) of former all-star shortstop Bo Bichette, but will also need at least one more impact bat. Yes, despite the GM’s protestations to the contrary, there is still a clear need to add power.
Finally — and we may be wrong on this given that fancy outfield bars and $1 hotdogs intoxicated enough of the fan base to keep buying tickets last season — there is certainly a growing sense of unrest among the Jays faithful. There are increasingly expensive tickets to be sold and some day this franchise may not be the cash cow it has been for the better part of the past decade.
It wasn’t that long ago when Jays management boasted of a scenario where the team would bask in a competitive window that would remain gloriously open for years. Instead, it’s this close to slamming shut in a loud way.
So what to expect from down in the heart of Texas this week?
Given recent history, I wouldn’t expect a great deal of earth-shattering news from the Jays at the meetings themselves, unless they shock the world and land Soto. Atkins’ preferred style is to operate under a cloak of vagueness, revealing little. In part the nature of the meetings in recent years and in part the GM’s own operating style during his tenure, he’s done little impact business at the winter meetings.
That said, if there is movement (read, Soto) at the high end of the market before they wind up, it will be interesting to see how the GM reacts when the market opens wide.
None of it will be easy, of course. The assignment is a stout one: Turning a last-place team into one that can return to contender status in one off-season.
The winter meetings tend to be the unofficial opening to baseball’s off-season. We’ll see what the Blue Jays’ GM has in him.