BEST BETS
NEW YORK JETS (3-9) at MIAMI DOLPHINS (5-7)
LINE: Miami by 6.5
Dolphins can still sneak into the playoffs, but they have to win out — and that’s possible with a remaining schedule that sees them play the Jets twice, Texans, Niners and Browns. Their defence is playing better of late and the Jets, particularly their defence, have been a mess since Woody Johnson fired Robert Saleh. We might feel bad for Aaron Rodgers as his once-glorious career twirls down the drain if he wasn’t such a despicable fellow.
TAKING: MIAMI -6.5
Dolphins 27, Jets 17
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CHICAGO BEARS (4-8) at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (5-7)
LINE: San Francisco by 3.5
Sounds like Bears players are thrilled Matt Eberflus is gone and teams usually get an immediate boost from a coaching change, anyway. Chicago has dropped six in a row but the past three have been by a field goal or less and the Niners, who also have lost three straight, have a list of injuries that includes their top two running backs (including Christian McCaffrey), two offensive linemen (including Trent Williams) and superb rush end Nick Bosa. If you thought they still could claw their way out of the ditch to make the playoffs, you surely changed your mind after the way they were torched by the Bills last week.
TAKING: CHICAGO +3.5
Bears 23, Niners 21
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (8-4) at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (11-1)
LINE: Kansas City by 4
The champs have now won nine one-score games and they are coming off back-to-back games in which they made Bryce Young look like the best version of Cam Newton and Aidan O’Connell look like a modern-day Kenny Stabler. Justin Herbert has laid a couple of eggs lately, but he should get back on track here. I’d like the Chargers’ chances at an upset if J.K. Dobbins wasn’t out, but their defence has still allowed a league-low 15.7 points per game. Also worth noting: Chiefs have won the past six meetings, but three of the wins were by a field goal or less and another was on an overtime touchdown.
TAKING: LOS ANGELES +4
Chiefs 17, Chargers 14
And the rest
ATLANTA FALCONS (6-6) at MINNESOTA VIKINGS ((10-2)
LINE: Minnesota by 5.5
It’s tough to put a lot of faith in Kirk Cousins, who hasn’t thrown a TD pass in three games and is coming off a four-interception performance in Atlanta’s third straight loss. This also is the Falcons’ first time on the road since Cousins led them to a grand total of three field goals in a 32-point loss to Denver. Cousins also struggles against pressure defence and Brian Flores blitzes as much as anyone. But even though the Vikings have won five straight, they generally let teams hang around and a motivated Cousins should be able to do at least that while the Falcons try to keep pace with the Bucs.
TAKING: ATLANTA +5.5
Vikings 28, Falcons 23
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (4-8) at NEW YORK GIANTS (2-10)
LINE: New Orleans by 5
Drew Lock is getting first-team reps this week, which wasn’t the case when he kept the Giants to within seven in Dallas on U.S. Thanksgiving. The G-Men are trying to hold on to the first overall draft pick in 2025 (why else would they dump their best QB?) but Lock is attempting to salvage his career, the Giants are 3-2 ATS as underdogs of five points or more and the sickly Saints don’t deserve to be favoured by more than a field goal on the road against anybody, especially with Taysom Hill on the shelf.
TAKING: NEW YORK +5
Saints 24, Giants 20
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (2-10) at TENNESSEE TITANS (3-9)
LINE: Tennessee by 3.5
The Titans are a league-worst 0-5 ATS at home, 0-3 ATS as a home favourite and coming off a 42-19 pounding in Washington. With Trevor Lawrence going on IR, the Jags will turn to Mac Jones, who has won just one of his past 10 starts, but six of those defeats have been by one score. Am I reaching to make a case for the Jags? Yes. Too far, so I’ll stop and go with the better defence, the better quarterback (Will Levis) and the home team.
TAKING: TENNESSEE -3.5
Titans 21, Jaguars 17
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (2-10) at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (6-6)
LINE: Tampa Bay by 6.5
Last Friday afternoon the guy beside me in the bar bet on the Raiders to win outright in Kansas City and I thought he was nuts, until they came within a botched snap of pulling off the upset. But then, the Chiefs rarely win convincingly anymore. The Bucs have a Top 6 offence in total yards, only five QBs have thrown for more yards than Baker Mayfield and both Bucky Irving and Mike Evans are coming off huge games in OT win over the suddenly feisty Panthers. But the Raiders have been better offensively since Scott Turner took over as interim OC three games ago and Aidan O’Connell could duplicate or better last week’s performance (340 passing yards, two TDs) against the Bucs 28th-ranked air defence.
TAKING: LAS VEGAS +6.5
Buccaneers 27, Raiders 21
CLEVELAND BROWNS (3-9) at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (9-3)
LINE: Pittsburgh by 6.5
The long-range forecast for Pittsburgh on Sunday is 8C and sunny skies, so no heavy snowfall like the one that hit Cleveland in the second half of the Browns’ 24-19 win over the Steelers two weeks ago. The bigger concern here is not whether the Steelers will avenge that loss — they will, behind the strong running of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, and Russell Wilson coming off his best game in 107 starts — but whether the Steelers O-line can contain Myles Garrett this time and the back-door coverability of the rejuvenated Jameis Winston and Jerry Jeudy.
TAKING: CLEVELAND +6.5
Steelers 27, Browns 21
CAROLINA PANTHERS (3-9) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (10-2)
LINE: Philadelphia by 12.5
Speaking of rejuvenated, Bryce Young has beaten the Giants and battled the Bucs and Chiefs in losses by a field goal the past three games, but the G-Men are the worst team in football and Tampa and K.C. have the 30th and 23rd pass defences. Eagles are a machine on both sides of the ball, they have the league’s best defence and are third-ranked against air attacks. Saquon Barkley vs. the NFL’s worst run-stop unit is a colossal mismatch and Philadelphia is chasing the top seed.
TAKING: PHILADELPHIA -12.5
Eagles 30, Panthers 17
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (7-5) at ARIZONA CARDINALS (6-6)
LINE: Arizona by 2.5
Let’s see, the Seahawks beat the Cardinals by 10 just two weeks ago and have now won three straight, while the Cardinals have dropped two in a row and are laying the points. That makes as much sense as mustard on egg salad, or taking the Cardinals when James Conner averaged 1.14 yards per carry on eight attempts in that 16-6 loss. But the desperation level comes into play here. Seattle doesn’t lose its chance at first place with a loss. Arizona does. It’s on Jonathon Gannon and his coaching staff if the Cardinals don’t learn from their mistakes in the last meeting,
TAKING: ARIZONA -2.5
Cardinals 21, Seahawks 17
BUFFALO BILLS (10-2) at LOS ANGELES RAMS (6-6)
LINE: Buffalo by 4.5
The Bills haven’t scored fewer than 30 points in almost two months, a stretch that covers six games, and right about now you’re almost expecting Josh Allen, the odds-on MVP favourite to figure out a way to add a special teams TD and Pick Six to his repertoire. But after schooling Kansas City and San Francisco in consecutive weeks, might the Bills be peeking ahead to next Sunday’s showdown with the Lions? The win-one-lose-one Rams are due for another defeat, but Matthew Stafford has thrown for eight TD passes against no interceptions in his past three games and, even though he’s 0-3 in his career versus Buffalo, the Rams are in the heat of a playoff race and he should show up here.
TAKING: LOS ANGELES +4.5
Bills 31, Rams 27
CINCINNATI BENGALS (4-8) at DALLAS COWBOYS (5-7)
LINE: Cincinnati by 5.5
That’s it, I’ve seen enough. I’m finally getting off the Bengals bandwagon. Watching them give up an average of 35 points over the past five games (1-4) has convinced me their defence is helpless. They aren’t going to make a miraculous comeback to claim a playoff spot. Joe Burrow might be the best QB in the league right now, but after Trey Hendrickson, Tee Higgins, Ja’Marr Chase and London’s Chase Brown, they have very little else. I can’t quit them cold turkey, however. Burrow is playing too well and I expect Hendrickson, the NFL leader in sacks, to dominate Cowboys rookie left tackle Tyler Guyton, who, I just read, has been called for the second-highest number of penalties in the league and has surrendered as many sacks as any first-year blocker. The Bengals won’t make the playoffs, but they’re not going to cover in this spot, either. They’ll do just enough to crush the Cowboys’ post-season hopes.
TAKING: DALLAS +5.5
Bengals 37, Cowboys 33
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