French Prime Minister Michel Barnier was expected to resign Thursday, after his administration was toppled by a no-confidence vote, leaving the country with no government as it runs out of time to pass a budget before the new year.
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Though no formal announcement had been made by midday, Barnier, a traditional conservative and the European Union’s former Brexit negotiator, met with French President Emmanuel Macron at the Élysée Palace early Thursday. Macron appointed Barnier just three months ago in a bid to restore stability to a political leadership in turmoil.
Instead, faced with acrimonious political divisions and the difficult task of reining in spending, Barnier’s administration became the first to be overthrown by a no-confidence motion since 1962.
The 73-year-old Barnier did not speak publicly Thursday, but he said in a speech ahead of the vote on Wednesday that it had been an “honor” to serve in the role “with dignity.” He warned that this was “a moment of truth” for France and said the country’s debt burden would not “disappear by the magic of censure motions.”
The vote to oust the government was triggered after Barnier bypassed the lower house of Parliament to push through a budget bill. It capped weeks of wrangling over his purse-tightening and tax plans to plug the gaping hole in France’s public finances. While the no-confidence motion was put forward by a left-wing alliance, it was the swing vote of Marine Le Pen and her far-right lawmakers that dealt the final blow – showcasing the unprecedented sway she now wields over government talks.
As France contends with a spiraling deficit, Barnier made it a priority to regain control of public coffers, with steep cuts to the state budget. He maintained this was necessary to rein in France’s debt, which is over 110 percent of GDP – the third-highest ratio in Europe. Critics on the hard left and right seized on the plan, arguing it would hurt the poor and French economic competitiveness. While Le Pen secured concessions in the budget talks, they were not enough for the government to survive.
Macron, now under pressure to move fast and project stability, is set to address the nation Thursday night. He has few options. He could ask Barnier’s government to stay on in a caretaker role as he tries to name a new prime minister, but it’s not clear who could command enough support from lawmakers in this divided political landscape.
The government vacuum will hobble urgent efforts to pass a budget for 2025 as France seeks to regain control of the ballooning deficit.
The country’s robust institutions and French law will allow for continuity and ways to keep things running, at least in the short term: A government can seek legislative approval to roll the 2024 budget into a new year, temporarily keeping public workers paid and operations functional until a new budget can be adopted.
But to avert a shutdown, the budget rollover will have to be voted on before the end of the month. And if talks over a new government drag on too long, there is a legal gray area about what powers can be used by any interim government. Prolonged uncertainty also has the potential to spook markets and have a dampening effect beyond France’s borders.
The political storm has been brewing since the summer, when Macron made a risky bet on snap elections that concluded in July with a severely fragmented National Assembly in which no bloc held a governing majority.
Le Pen’s National Rally party ended up with a kingmaker role in a bitterly divided political landscape. The New Popular Front – a broad left-wing alliance that rallied together to come in first in the election – was infuriated for being sidelined in the fragile government of centrists and conservatives. With the left already opposed, the government faced the prospect that it could fall at any moment if the far-right party added its weight to a no-confidence vote.
The French president cannot legally call for legislative elections again before the summer, so the same political dynamics threaten to plague the next government. Some analysts said Macron might now try to find a candidate with some consensus who could last at least long enough to see through the rollover the 2024 budget and prevent a government shutdown in January.
Whatever Macron does next, it will be a bumpy year ahead in French politics, with a renewed budgetary battle looming and growing calls for the president’s resignation from his fiercest critics on the far left and far right. Ahead of the no-confidence vote, Macron again ruled out stepping down before his term ends in 2027.
There was much speculation Thursday morning on who might replace Barnier, but France’s front pages were in agreement on one point: the extraordinary nature of the moment.
“The Great Unknown,” read Le Parisien’s front page Thursday. “Marine Le Pen’s Troubled Game,” said Le Monde. “Historical censure, political crisis,” pronounced Le Figaro.
The political turmoil boiled over days before Macron welcomes dignitaries and foreign leaders to the reopening of Notre Dame – billed as a moment of unity and a chance to highlight French achievements. First lady Jill Biden and President-elect Donald Trump are among those due on Saturday in Paris to attend the reopening – the result of over five years of painstaking work since a 2019 fire gutted the cathedral.