Get ready to spend more money on your meals in the new year.
Recommended Videos
The cost of food for people across Canada is predicted to rise by 3%-5% in 2025, according to a new report.
Canada’s Food Price Report 2025, jointly released by Dalhousie University, the University of Guelph, the University of Saskatchewan, and the University of British Columbia on Thursday, is anticipating a couple with a teenage boy and pre-teen girl will spend an additional $800 compared to last year, based on the higher end 5% increase.
Next year’s increases are based on the 2024 predictions by the report’s authors, who projected the family of four spending $16,297.20 on food. According to this year’s food inflation numbers, the family ended up forking over $16,572.34.
To come to the 2025 prediction, the authors ran three different machine learning and artificial intelligence models independently. Experts from the schools then weighed in on the forecasts to combine the use of AI and expert knowledge into the final numbers.
“Our relationship with food is changing as we pay more attention to food prices than ever before, shifting our behaviours around purchasing and consumption,” the report said.
The report, which marks the 15th edition of the annual publication, says the authors anticipate the cost of meat to have the largest increase at 4%-6%. Restaurant dining and vegetables are expected to cost 3%-5% more while bakery, deli and other food will see a 2%-4% jump. Prices for fruit and seafood will see a modest 1%-3% increase.
The authors of the report factored in potential climate events, labour disputes, new policies, the U.S. election, and exchange and interest rates into the price increases.
RECOMMENDED VIDEO
At the provincial level, the report predicts food prices in Ontario, Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba and Saskatchewan next year will be below the national average while Quebec, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland and Labrador will be above. Prince Edward Island is expected to hit the average forecast.
The report also notes that the weakening Canadian dollar will have an impact on food prices in the coming months as importers will be forced to pay more for American goods.
And that, coupled with the affordability crisis, has forced Canadians to make tough choices on what they purchase. Some people have turned to comparison shopping for better prices among stores, price matching, and using coupons and loyalty or points systems to reduce food costs.
“Nearly half of Canadians now consider affordability as the primary factor when choosing food,” the report said.
RECOMMENDED VIDEO
According to Dalhousie’s Agri-Food Analytics Lab’s Canadian Food Sentiment Index, affordability is the most significant factor people consider when purchasing food at 47.3%, followed by nutrition at 24.9%.
And more than 8.7 million individuals across 10 provinces report living in food-insecure households, with the highest rates found in Nova Scotia (28.9%) and P.E.I. (28.6%), according to data released by Statistics Canada from the Canadian Income Survey in 2023.
Some people turned to sales and discounts to afford their groceries while others bought fewer non-essential food items, switched to cheaper brands or shopped at cheaper stores.
The rising cost of food also comes at a time with higher food bank usage.
According to the Food Banks Canada Hunger Count back in March, there were more than two million visits to food banks across the country, a 6% increase compared from 2023 and a 90% increase compared to 2019.