Opinion of India plummets in Canada over last 18 months but most want free trade talks to restart

Canadians’ opinion of India has declined precipitously after a rough year of relations between the two countries, according to a new poll.

Eighteen months ago, a majority (52 per cent) of people in Canada told the Angus Reid Institute (ARI) that Ottawa should approach New Delhi as a valued partner and ally, or at least on friendly terms. That sentiment has dropped by half to just 24 per cent.

 “Only 18 months ago, India was seen largely as a trusted ally…viewed with warmth and friendliness,” says Shachi Kurl, president of the ARI, which conducted the poll in partnership with the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada.

Favourable views of India, itself, have fallen in equal decline from a high of 56 per cent in January 2020 to just 26 per cent today. India is only seen more favourably now than Russia and China. Trust in New Delhi sits at less than one-third (28 per cent).

These drops are “very much a reflection of events of the past year, the murder of (Canadian Sikh leader, and Khalistani separatist) Hardeep Singh Nijjar and the diplomatic tit for tat that followed,” she said.

There is less consensus among Canadians over how the federal government is perceived to be handling the relationship between the two nations. Many Canadians are inclined to say Ottawa isn’t managing it well (39 per cent), compared to one-third (32 per cent) who say the opposite and almost the same number (29 per cent) who say they aren’t sure.

While the deep diplomatic freeze between the two nations shows little sign of defrosting in the short term, 39 per cent in Canada say the impasse will not improve until Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is no longer in office. Thirty-four per cent say that about Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Shifting to the trade relationship between the two countries, two-thirds (64 per cent) of respondents said Canadians say Canada should at least “cautiously” attempt to reopen negotiation of a free trade agreement with India. This is a “glimmer of hope,” says Kurl, particularly in light of threats from incoming U.S. President Donald Trump to impose 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian exports.

The decline in affairs between the two countries began in September 2023 when Canada called for a surprise pause in negotiations of a Canada-India trade treaty that had been in the works since March 2022.

Trudeau visited India that month for the G20 summit, which saw a terse exchange on the sidelines between the Canadian leader and Modi, who expressed concerns about Sikh protesters in Canada. This was a prelude to a further souring of relations when Trudeau subsequently rose in the House of Commons and accused the Indian government of involvement in the killing of Nijjar.

The RCMP announced in October of this year that it had “evidence” the Indian government was linked to crimes in Canada. India denied involvement, calling it a “smear campaign.” Canada then expelled some of India’s diplomats from the country, as India did the same.

Meanwhile, the Canadian Security Intelligence Service has also pointed a finger toward India, saying that country’s government tried to influence the 2019 and 2021 federal elections. And an intelligence report tabled in the House of Commons earlier this year accused India, alongside China, of interfering in the Conservative Party of Canada’s 2022 leadership race.

Of Canada’s major trading partners, only China (76 per cent) and India (66 per cent) are selected by a majority of Canadians as nations that do not “strictly upholding the rule of law or respecting human rights.” Two-thirds (66 per cent) say Canada should “stand up for what (the country) believes is right” with India — even if it means further deterioration of the relationship.

According to the most recent Canadian census in 2021, there are 1.35 million people of Indian origin in Canada. India has been the top source country for not only permanent residents to Canada, but also temporary foreign workers and international students.

 Canadians who were born in India have a more favourable view of the country (54 per cent) than those who whose parents or grandparents were born there (36 per cent) and those who have no Indian heritage at all (21 per cent).