Reform UK is set to replace Labour and the Tories in Wales as support for mainstream parties continues to crumble, a historic poll has shown.
Nigel Farage’s party polled a hefty 23 per cent in the Celtic Nation this weekend, equal with Labour for second place and four points ahead of the struggling Welsh Conservatives.
Senedd voting intention shows Reform level with Labour and four points ahead of the Tories
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This marks an extraordinary drop in support for Labour whose projected vote share fell 13 per cent, just five months after winning 85 per cent of Wales’ Westminster constituencies.
Reform were up 22 per cent, the Tories down six while the Greens and Lib Dems were up two and one point each.
Many polls have come out in recent weeks showing Reform’s rising popularity in Wales, but this one is different and more meaningful.
This is because the poll asked for Senedd voting intention (the Welsh parliament), not Westminster voting intention.
This is huge for Reform as the Senedd uses a proportional voting system, meaning seats are allocated via number of votes received.
For Reform, who tend to attract lots of votes but often end up second or third in Westminster’s winner-takes-all First Past the Post system (FPTP), this is hugely beneficial.
Reform UK Chairman, Zia Yusuf said: “This polling shows Reform has all the momentum and is becoming a huge force in Wales.
“[It’s] essentially a three-way dead heat already between Reform, Labour and Plaid Cymru, with Reform four points ahead of the hapless Tories.
“All this and our campaign infrastructure has barely had time to have an impact yet. We have now opened branches in every Welsh constituency.
“The Welsh people are ready for real change, that’s what Reform will deliver.”
The Senedd- where GB News is banned
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The landmark poll, carried out by YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, putWelsh-nationalist party Plaid Cymru in first with 24 per cent of the vote.
A Plaid Cymru spokesperson said: “This poll is a historic turning point for Wales. People are recognising that Plaid Cymru under Rhun ap Iorwerth’s leadership is the clear alternative to Labour, offering the only programme of positive change to improve lives.
“If these figures are repeated at the election, Plaid Cymru would become the largest party in the Senedd for the first time ever. Meanwhile, Labour’s support is collapsing, exposing their failure to deliver.
“Promises of a partnership of delivery between the UK and Welsh Labour governments are ringing hollow.
“Pensioners are losing their winter fuel allowance. Record-high NHS waiting lists remain unresolved. There is no clear plan to improve our education system, no strategy to grow the economy or create well-paid jobs, and our public transport system continues to leave communities disconnected.
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“As Labour continues to let down our communities, Plaid Cymru can lead the way with a fresh, positive ‘Made in Wales’ agenda for government. Only Plaid Cymru offers a chance for Wales to unite behind a hopeful and forward-looking vision.
“Momentum is with Plaid Cymru. Rhun ap Iorwerth offers the new leadership people are crying out for. We will fix the NHS, give young people the tools to succeed, rebuild the economy, and demand fairness from Westminster. Wales deserves better.”
This is the first time in 14 years Labour has lost its lead in a national poll of Wales. Keir Starmer’s party has ruled Wales since devolution began 26 years ago.
Occasional coalitions with Plaid have been the only interruption in what is otherwise an extraordinarily dominant run, one the Welsh Conservatives have failed to dent.
But with an NHS in crisis, school outcomes lagging behind the other home nations, 20mph speed limits and Vaughan Gething’s disastrous premiership, the Welsh public appear to be abandoning Labour.
Welsh Labour declined to comment on the poll. The Welsh Conservatives have been approached.