Slowly, piece by piece, things are falling into place for the Edmonton Oilers.
The penalty kill, after a dismal adjustment period following the off-season departure of some key elements, is actually killing penalties again.
Brett Kulak and Vasily Podkolzin are the kind of pleasant surprises all good teams need in any given year. Corey Perry is great value for the money as a hard-playing veteran who knows how to work a hockey game.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, with two goals in the last two games, might have found his missing hands. Darnell Nurse is finding success in a simplified game that allows him to be the heavy, steady, tough defender they need him to be.
Ty Emberson and Troy Stecher are both faring better than expected on Edmonton’s revamped blue line. Mattias Janmark, with 10 points in 24 games, is quietly on pace for a career year.
And the Oilers are 7-2-1 in the last 10 and riding a three-game win streak.
There are lots of positive trends at the moment.
Power play needs improvement
Some elements have been slower to come around, however, and remain a work in progress.
The power play, while showing signs of recovery over the last seven games, 4-for-18 (22 per cent) needs to be better.
High-profile acquisitions Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson aren’t paying the kind of dividends Oilers management had hoped when they announced the free agent signings last summer. So far they have six goals and seven assists between them for that $7 million in combined salary.
Meanwhile, Warren Foegele ($3.5 million) has six goals and five assists in Los Angeles, Dylan Holloway ($2.3 million) has seven goals and six assists in St. Louis and Ryan McLeod ($2.1 million) has six goals and six assists in Buffalo.
So scoring depth remains an issue, with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl accounting for 29 of the Oilers’ 72 goals this year, a whopping 40.2 per cent. Throw in assists and they’ve factored in on 61 per cent of Edmonton’s total offence.
There were some good signs in Colorado, where Podkolzin, Kulak, Kasperi Kapanen and Nugent-Hopkins took care of the scoring in a 4-1 win, so maybe that’s the start of some much needed backup.
But all of this doesn’t mean a thing unless Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard are up to the task of getting the Oilers back to being Stanley Cup contenders again.
If the goaltending isn’t there, nothing else matters.
So far this year the numbers show an uphill battle. Skinner checks in with an .887 save percentage and Pickard at .895. If those numbers don’t get better, Edmonton isn’t winning anything this year.
But, if the last few games are any indication, the goalies might be launching a timely comeback. Skinner stopped 27 of 28 shots in Colorado, 32 of 34 against the New York Rangers and 27 of 29 against Ottawa. That’s a .945 save percentage over those three wins. He also mixed in an .808 against Minnesota, but the whole team was bad that night.
And Pickard is .903, .917 and .909 over his last three starts, so Edmonton’s goaltending could be heading back to where it was last year.
Withstand the backlash
They’ve done it before so head coach Kris Knoblauch believes they can do it again.
“We saw Stu go through an incredible stretch last year,” said Knoblauch. “Since I’ve been here I’ve known a goalie who’s been solid and put in a lot of good performances.”
Skinner has shown the ability to fight back from adversity many times in his short career. He can look leaky at times, earning the wrath of an impatient and highly-critical fan base, but he also has that invaluable goalie gene that allows him to withstand the backlash and steady his game.
“Look at the playoffs, when he came back (after sitting on the bench for Games 4 and 5) in the second half of the series against Vancouver,” said Knoblauch. “And definitely the series against Dallas he was outstanding. Even the Florida series.
“In the regular season I think of him as a really good goaltender. There are some elite goalies who are winning trophies and winning awards. I think he’s right below that, he’s a darn good goalie.”
Edmonton’s overall game is helping on that front, too. As the defence gets better and the PK tightens up, the goalie numbers migrate north. As the run support improves, each and every mistake doesn’t have to mean they lose the game.
“If you keep everything out to the perimeter it’s easier for the goalie,” said Knoblauch. “There is a predictability of the shots, he knows what to expect and he feels better about his game.
“But there are always going to be mistakes, there are always going to be breakdowns. (Against Colorado) it looked like a good defensive game where we held them to one goal but the amount of saves that Stu made, if he doesn’t make those saves we’re talking about how poor we were defensively.
“They rely on each other.”
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