I have to admit I was wrong when I said the Canadiens would make the playoffs this season.
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Only one quarter of the season is in the books but Montreal is once again jockeying for position in the please-let-it-be-Porter-Martone sweepstakes.
The Canadiens are only five points out of the final wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference after collecting three of a possible four points in their last two games. But the Thanksgiving factor says they can clean out their lockers on April 17.
For those unfamiliar with the Thanksgiving factor, there is a rule of thumb that, if a team is in a playoff spot on the U.S. Thanksgiving, it’s likely to be there at the end of the season. That has been the case 77 per cent of the time in the salary cap era and, in each of the three seasons since the pandemic morphed into an epidemic, seven of the eight Eastern Conference teams in a playoff spot at the holiday advanced to the playoffs.
Based on history, Toronto, Florida, Boston, Carolina, New Jersey, Washington, Tampa Bay and the New York Rangers are headed to the playoffs.
For those Canadiens fans who are eternally optimistic — or merely delusional — there is one notable outlier, the 2018-19 St. Louis Blues. They were not only out of a playoff spot at Thanksgiving, but they were also last in the league standings on New Year’s Eve.
Things turned around when Craig Berube replaced Mike Yeo behind the bench The Blues finished third in the Central Division and went on to win the Stanley Cup.
The Canadiens finished the first quarter of the season in last place but go into the weekend fourth from the bottom. It’s time to look at some pluses and minuses.
PLUS — Special teams: Things weren’t looking good when the Canadiens failed to score a power-play goal in the preseason, but the special teams have been a pleasant surprise. After three seasons ranking in the bottom five in the power play and penalty kill, the PK was seventh going into Friday’s games and the power play 10th.
Nick Suzuki (whose two-way play should rate consideration from Selke Trophy voters), Cole Caufield and defencemen Mike Matheson and Lane Hutson drive the power play while shot blocker David Savard, Joel Armia and Jake Evans stand out on the PK. All three penalty killers are eligible to become free agents on July 1 and keeping Evans should be a priority. He’s due a raise from his cap-friendly $1.7-million salary and the question is how much and for how long.
MINUS — Cayden Primeau: The Canadiens kept three goaltenders last season because they feared they would lose Primeau if they placed him on waivers The way he has played this season, they could put him on waivers and there would be no takers. I suspect Rocket netminders Connor Hughes and Jakub Dobes willl get a shot at the backup role before the season is over. No. 1 goaltender Sam Montembeault is better but still needs to work on consistency. He has two shutouts, but he has been pulled on three occasions.
PLUS — The top line: Suzuki, Caufield and Juraj Slafkosky have to stay together. Slafkosky was benched midway through the third period in Tuesday’s overtime loss to Utah but he bounced back with a goal and an assist Wednesday in Columbus. He is still developing, but he remains the prize from the 2022 draft.
MINUS — The defence: This is a team problem from the goalie out, and this is where the Canadiens’ youth sticks out. If there is a game plan, the players appear unable or unwilling to follow it. There are signs of improvement, but the offence doesn’t produce enough to compensate for a team that ranks 31st in goals allowed per game.
PLUS — Lane Hutson: He makes mistakes because that’s what rookies do, but Hutson has a unique set of skills and it’s enough to forget that guys his size — he’s not quite 5-foot-10 and weights 160 pounds — aren’t supposed to be playing heavy minutes in the NHL. He won’t win rookie of the year honours, but he’ll be in the conversation.
MINUS — Too many bad contracts: We’ll give Kirby Dach a pass because he’s coming off knee surgery and trying to find his role, but there are too many other players who aren’t earning their salaries. Josh Anderson isn’t doing enough — four goals and six assists — to earn his $5.5-million cap hit and he has two more years remaining on his deal. Winning faceoffs isn’t enough to justify Christian Dvorak’s $4.45-million cap hit and Joel Armia is an expensive bottom-six penalty killer at $3.4 million. Brendan Gallagher’s $6.5-million cap hit looked like a bad deal when he was battling injuries, but he’s healthy again and scoring at a 30-goal pace.