132,945 small businesses on UK high streets will be extinct within 15 years – with local pubs and bars set to vanish in little over a decade. In a stark warning to shoppers this Black Friday, small business insurance provider Simply Business has calculated the extinction date of independent high street businesses, should current rates of decline continue.

Electrical appliance shops top the list of most endangered businesses. Unable to compete with the huge discounts on offer from online retailers, they could be wiped out by as early as 2029, as shoppers hold off on purchasing until Black Friday deals are revealed.

Meanwhile, according to analysis of ONS data, shoe shops and homeware stores are currently experiencing the fastest decline and will cease to exist by 2034. Pubs, bars and newsagents will be in dire straits over the next decade as this sector has seen the largest overall drop in registrations and increase in closures.

Top 10 endangered businesses (extinction date):

  1. Electrical appliance (2029)
  2. Shoe shops & leather goods (2034)
  3. Furniture & homeware shops (2034)
  4. Pubs and Bars (2035)
  5. Newsagents & Stationers (2035)
  6. Fishmongers (2038)
  7. Chemists (2039)
  8. Tech & PC shops (2039)
  9. Watch shops & jewellers (2039)
  10. Clothing stores (2039)

Launching on Black Friday, the ‘Bleak Friday’ campaign urges shoppers to support small and independent businesses around this peak retail moment. High street businesses including greengrocer Reg the Veg (Bristol), M.Manze pie shops (Tower Bridge, Peckham, Sutton), Top of the Town (Stockport) and East End pub The George Tavern (Stepney), have taken to social media to share their own extinction dates, if the current state of decline continues.

Bea Montoya, UK Chief Operating Officer at Simply Business said: “Britain’s independent high street is at breaking point. Our research paints a bleak picture – if we don’t act urgently, our high streets will soon look vastly different. Independent pubs, newsagents and others will soon be extinct, and the impact this will have on communities will be devastating.

“Owners have told us what would help. A third (33%) say the Government should invest in infrastructure to make high streets more attractive to shoppers, 27% want to see business rates scrapped, and 22% want to see grants, loans or tax incentives for independent retail businesses. Almost all owners (94%) believe the Government has a key role to play in turning the tide.

“Beyond enriching our communities, we know that what’s best for small businesses is best for our economy – they collectively contribute trillions of pounds and account for vast employment.

“We hope this campaign will raise awareness, and we’re committed to doing our best to materially help. That’s why we’ll be financially supporting a high street business in light of the cut in business rates relief, while at the same time gathering insight to outline a long-term plan to save our high street.”