Best Bets
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (9-2) at BALTIMORE RAVENS (8-4)
LINE: Baltimore by 3
See, I thought the Lions were getting more love than the Eagles as the team to beat in the NFC only because Detroit is a new flavour of the day, but now I see the lack of respect extends to the betting public, which has inexplicably (in my mind) made the Ravens a field-goal favourite. I don’t get it. Not only have the Eagles won seven in a row, but they also have the No. 1 defence overall (third against the pass, seventh vs. the run) and an offence ranked third, behind Baltimore and Detroit. Saquon Barkley may have some difficulty manoeuvring around the Ravens’ No. 2 ranked run defence, especially if Roquan Smith returns, but Jalen Hurts will have his way with Baltimore’s No. 31-ranked pass D, whether DeVonta Smith is back or not. The points are a nice little security blanket I won’t need.
TAKING: PHILADELPHIA +3
Eagles 28, Ravens 20
SAN FRANCISO 49ERS at BUFFALO BILLS
LINE: BUFFALO BY 6.5
Grab the Bills at this number if you still can. It will balloon if Brock Purdy, Trent Williams and Nick Bosa have to miss another game, which looks to be the case. Fred Warner admitted he’s also playing on a fractured ankle and the real Christian McCaffrey has not been spotted in the two games he has played. The Bills scored at least 30 points in five straight games before last week’s bye and they will pick up where they left off in pursuit of the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
TAKING: BUFFALO -6.5
Bills 30, Niners 17
CLEVELAND BROWNS (3-8) at DENVER BRONCOS (7-5)
LINE: Denver by 5.5
Bo Nix has eight TD passes to zero interceptions in his past three games and currently looks like the best QB in the class of ’24, which saw four others drafted before him. The Browns are coming off their Super Bowl victory over the archrival Steelers in the snow, but in this one they run into a sixth-ranked run defence that should make life tough for Nick Chubb and a ninth-ranked pass defence that will stymie Jameis Winston, as he is hurried into mistakes by Denver, which leads the league with 44 sacks.
TAKING: DENIVER -5.5
Broncos 24, Browns 14
And the rest ….
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (2-9) at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (10-1)
LINE: Kansas City by 12
Taking the Chiefs as a heavy favourite is crazy. Last week, they responded to their first loss of the season not by trampling the Panthers, as one might have expected, but with some nifty Patrick Mahomes running to set up a Spencer Schrader tie-breaking field goal as time expired — Kansas City’s eighth one-score victory of the season. Mahomes mentioned afterward that it would be nice to have a blowout every once in a while and back on home turf this week his wish will come true against a Raiders team featuring Aidan O’Connell (again) and RB Sincere McCormick that has lost its past seven by an average score of 31-18. Call me crazy, but with the expected return of Isiah Pacheco, I’m betting on the Chiefs to win by more than 10 points for just the second time this season.
TAKING: KANSAS CITY -12
Chiefs 34, Raiders 13
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (6-5) at NEW YORK JETS (3-8)
LINE: Seattle by 1.5
As a fading 41-year-old pulling in a salary of $37.5 million, the question shouldn’t be whether Aaron Rodgers plays next year, or for whom. It should be who the heck would want him? The Jets have lost seven of their past eight and the conversation centres around the future of Rodgers, while the first-place Seahawks are coming off back-to-back victories over a couple of division rivals in which their defence has allowed just two TDs and 23 points. Geno Smith is 2-0 against the Jets, who employed him for four forgettable seasons, and he’ll get the best of captain Rodgers and his sinking ship. The line feels like a gift.
TAKING: SEATTLE -1.5
Seahawks 27, Jets 17
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (8-3) at CINCINNATI BENGALS (4-7)
LINE: Cincinnati by 2.5
The Steelers have won 20 of their past 24 games in Cincinnati, but sometimes desperation trumps history. The Bengals scored 61 points while losing two in a row heading into last week’s bye, which means they’ve had extra time to figure out their issues on defence as they head into battle against a Russell Wilson-led attack that has only scored 37 over the past two games. Cincinnati can’t afford to lose another game in its quest for a playoff spot and, while Mike Tomlin thrives as an underdog (62-34 ATS), Joe Burrow (27 TD passes, four picks) will not let this season slip away yet.
TAKING: CINCINNATI -2.5
Bengals 21, Steelers 17
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (5-7) at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (3-9)
LINE: Indianapolis by 2.5
The Colts are coming off a 24-6 loss to the Lions, but are 8-4-0 ATS and 4-2-0 ATS on the road. After two quiet games, Jonathan Taylor should hit triple digits in rushing yards for the fifth time this season against a team he has averaged 119.5 ground yards against in two career games.
TAKING: INDIANAPOLIS -2.5
Colts 24, Patriots 19
TENNESSEE TITANS (3-8) at WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (7-5)
LINE: Washington by 5.5
Formerly the pleasant surprise of the season, the Commanders — with Jayden Daniels playing through a rib injury — have dropped three in a row and are falling into danger of missing the playoffs. Tennessee is coming off an impressive road win in Houston that was its first victory in a game started and finished by Will Levis, who survived eight sacks. The Titans are a league-worst 2-9 ATS, but 2-4 ATS on the road and with a defence that still ranks second in total yards allowed, should be able to keep this one close.
TAKING: TENNESSEE +5.5
Commanders 23, Titans 20
ARIZONA CARDINALS (6-5) at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (9-2)
LINE: Minnesota by 3.5
The Cardinals stumbled in last week’s divisional loss to Seattle, but before that had strung together an impressive four-game winning streak. The Vikings have won four in a row, all against opponents with losing records, the past three on the road. Kyler Murray performs well against the blitz, which Minnesota does more than any team, but has only won three of his 11 games against NFC North teams. The home fans will have something to chant “Skol” about, but those who bet the Vikings to cover will be a little quieter.
TAKING: ARIZONA +3.5
Vikings 27, Cardinals 24
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (7-4) at ATLANTA FALCONS (6-5)
LINE: Los Angeles by 1.5
Jim Harbaugh fumbled the Har-Bowl away to brother John when the Chargers let a 10-0 lead turn into a 30-23 loss to the Ravens in the wrap-up to Week 12, but that could into a positive as, along with being 5-1 ATS after a Monday night game and 8-1 ATS in 1 p.m. games on the East Coast, Jim is 10-3 ATS after a loss, not counting the 2014 season. The Falcons have two lost in a row, including a 38-6 setback last week in which they were totally exposed by rookie Bo Nix. Justin Herbert should do some piling on this week.
TAKING: LOS ANGELES -1.5
Chargers 27, Falcons 21
HOUSTON TEXANS (7-5) at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (2-9)
LINE: Houston by 5
It would help to know if Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) is playing, but the heck with it, I’m going with the home team coming off a bye anyway. Houston is 0-4 ATS in division games, including a 24-20 home-field win over the Jags in Week 4 for which the Texans were six-point favourites. Even with the return of Nico Collins, the Texans fell victim to the Titans last week who, like Jacksonville, entered the game with just two wins.
TAKING: JACKSONVILLE +5
Texans 22, Jags 18
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (5-6) at CAROLINA PANTHERS (3-8)
LINE: Tampa Bay by 6
The Panthers appear to be stepping away from their reputation as the laughingstock of the NFL. With Bryce Young back at the controls, they won two in a row and then almost upset the Chiefs as a double-digit dog. As the OC in Tampa last season, Carolina coach Dave Canales knows the Bucs and probably has a plan or two on how to exploit a pass defence that is currently the fourth-worst in the league. Tampa crushed Tommy DeVito’s Giants last week to put the brakes on a four-game losing streak and Baker Mayfield should keep the Bucs in the thick of the race for first place, but it won’t be easy.
TAKING: CAROLINA +6
Bucs 27, Panthers 23
LOS ANGELES RAMS (5-6) at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (4-7)
LINE: Los Angeles by 3
The Rams turned in a disappointing performance while losing to the Eagles by 17 last Sunday night, so they should redeem themselves against a Saints team coming off wins over the Falcons and Browns. Watch for Matt Stafford and stud receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp to exploit a Saints pass defence that ranks 30th and for Kyren Williams to rack up some ground yards against the 25th-ranked run D.
TAKING: LOS ANGELES -3
Rams 30, Saints 22
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