On Tuesday, President Joe Biden held a press conference outside the White House to sell a U.S.-brokered plan to end the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah as a major breakthrough that will bring about a “permanent secession of hostilities.” But the president is delusional if he thinks it will bring more than a temporary peace.
Keen for a signature foreign policy win in the dying days of his presidency following over a year of failed diplomacy to end the conflict sparked by Hamas’s brutal October 7 massacre, Biden attempted to assure the world that Hezbollah “will not be allowed to threaten the security of Israel again.”
In reality, the ceasefire agreement is more likely to provide a temporary respite for the residents of northern Israel, who will hopefully feel safe enough to return to their homes in the coming weeks and months, but will ensure that Hezbollah continues to pose a threat to Israel’s long-term security.
The deal includes a 60-day period, beginning Wednesday morning, in which Hezbollah will pull back north of the Litani River, Israel will withdraw its forces and thousands of Lebanese soldiers will be deployed to the south to ensure the terrorists group doesn’t return. All this will reportedly take place under the watchful eye of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNFIL).
The United States has also reportedly agreed to a side deal affirming Israel’s right to strike targets within Lebanon if it believes they pose an “immediate threat” to its security, while acknowledging that going through the Lebanese army or striking Hezbollah targets in Syria would be preferable courses of action. This point was made clear by Biden, who said that, “If Hezbollah or anyone else breaks the deal and poses a direct threat to Israelis, then Israel retains the right to self-defence.”
Astute observers of international relations can be forgiven for experiencing a profound sense of deja vu, as this deal is virtually identical to the one that ended the 2006 Lebanon war. That agreement, backed by a United Nations Security Council resolution, failed due to the international community’s unwillingness to enforce it, which allowed Hezbollah to rearm.
The difference this time around is that an international oversight committee — which will include the United States, France and other allies — will be tasked with overseeing the implementation of the agreement.
However, while Biden promised the body would “provide the necessary assistance to ensure this deal is implemented fully and effectively,” he also ruled out the possibility of sending U.S. troops into Lebanon, leaving questions as to whether it will have any teeth. If this committee is unable to enforce the agreement, as UNFIL has been over the past 18 years, one has to wonder how the president thinks it will prove to be any more effective.
The key this time around will be to ensure that the oversight committee holds Lebanon’s feet to the fire and that UNFIL plays more than just an observer role, as Israel has made it clear that it will no longer tolerate Hezbollah stationing forces and military equipment along its northern border.
If the truce holds over the medium term — and at this point that’s still a big if — Israel will be in a much better security position than it was prior to Oct. 8, 2023, when the terrorist group began bombarding it with near-daily rocket, drone and missile fire.
Israel has made remarkable gains since it began its offensive in Lebanon two months ago, taking out much of Hezbollah’s leadership and its offensive capabilities, which will likely take the terrorist group years to recover from — and perhaps longer if the deal successfully impedes Hezbollah’s ability to rearm. In the meantime, Israel will free up more resources to focus on its fight against Hamas and its ultimate struggle against Iran.
Yet news of this agreement came after a day of intense fighting between the two sides, showing that there is no love lost between them.
Hezbollah’s leaders have made it abundantly clear that their ultimate goal is to conquer Jerusalem and bring about the destruction of the Jewish state. To them, this ceasefire agreement will be seen as but a temporary setback in their long holy war against the Jewish presence in the Middle East, if not an opportunity to regroup and rearm after a devastating round of fighting.
Just as Biden pressured Israel not to hit Iran’s nuclear sites following Tehran’s direct missile attacks against the Jewish state, thus kicking the ultimate showdown with the Islamic Republic down the road, he also pressured Israel to agree to a deal that is unlikely to permanently remove the threat posed by Hezbollah.
Historians may come to look back on this period of time as a missed opportunity of historic proportions. Israel has so far failed in its mission to completely excise Hamas from Gaza. The international community has failed to broker an agreement that would ensure a lasting peace between Israelis and Palestinians.
Iran, while weakened, has not been deterred from supporting terrorism or developing its nuclear program. And a normalization agreement between Jerusalem and Riyadh that could fundamentally alter the balance of power in the region is as elusive as ever.
Biden clearly wants to be remembered as the president who brought an end to the violence sparked by the October 7 massacre; he will more likely be remembered as the one who made it someone else’s problem by delaying the inevitable reckoning between Israel and its mortal enemies.
National Post
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